MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 081936Z - 082200Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   FORM OVER FAR ERN CO ...AND MAY MATURE AND MOVE INTO WRN KS AND SWRN
   NEB.
   
   DISCUSSION...PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE AT AROUND 1.0 - 1.2 MB/HR
   ACROSS ERN CO AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN NWWD. THE SURFACE THETA-E AXIS WAS
   LOCATED FROM WRN OK INTO SERN CO JUST S OF A RELATIVELY COOL
   STRATUS-INDUCED COLD POCKET FROM GCK TO DDC. GRADUAL HEATING SHOULD
   CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
   AND 40S OVER ERN CO...INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT.
   
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CU BENEATH BROKEN CIRRUS NEAR LHX AND
   EXTENDING NWD TOWARD AKO. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...A FEW
   UPDRAFTS SHOULD GROW INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL. WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD 
   ALLOW CELLS TO TURN EWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE KS BORDER. HODOGRAPHS
   WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE
   ESSENTIALLY LIMITED BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IF STORMS CAN PERSIST
   INTO THE 50 F DEWPOINT AIR...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. A
   MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE BUT ONLY IF CELLS CAN
   MAINTAIN STRENGTH INTO THE LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE CAPPING
   DESTROYS THEM.
   
   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   LAT...LON   37700135 37640218 37650316 38130353 38930350 39740342
               40390308 40570205 40590135 40340087 39980069 39230076
               38460078 37930090 37700135