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Mesoscale Discussion 400
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0844 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AR...NORTH CENTRAL-NERN LA...AND NRN/CENTRAL
   MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90...

   VALID 250144Z - 250245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL MS COUNTIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN WW 90 AS TWO
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS MOVE EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MS. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED EWD INTO AL FOR A NEW WW. 

   MEANWHILE...A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL PERSISTS WITH
   A LINE OF STORMS MOVING INTO SERN AR TOWARD WEST CENTRAL MS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0130Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TWO
   STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IN CENTRAL MS /ONE AN HP SUPERCELL IN ERN
   HOLMES AND ATTALA COUNTIES/.  THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED
   ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WAS
   ATTENDANT TO THE LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF CONVECTION MOVING EWD
   THROUGH WRN TN INTO NERN TO WEST CENTRAL MS.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS INTERACTING WITH A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
   INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM LA INTO SRN/CENTRAL MS PER OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSES.  THIS COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST
   TOWARD THE LOWER TN VALLEY SHOULD SUSTAIN THE ONGOING STORMS AND
   SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD.  A STRENGTHENING
   SSWLY LLJ AT 35-40 KT PER WSR-88D VADS AT JAN AND LIX EXTENDING INTO
   CENTRAL MS HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
   CURVATURE SUCH THAT STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MS COULD POSE A TORNADO
   THREAT.

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD PERSIST EWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   MS...WITH THE RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGESTING THESE STORMS COULD REMAIN
   STRONG-SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN AL.  WHILE A FEW ROWS OF AL
   COUNTIES WOULD BE AFFECTED...POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR THE OVERALL
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO DIMINISH WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CENTRAL AL AS
   THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
   OUTRUNS THE GREATER INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 
   MEANWHILE...THE STORMS MOVING INTO SERN AR MAY WEAKEN ONCE THEY
   REACH WEST CENTRAL MS WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY
   OVERTURNED FROM STORMS CURRENTLY IN THAT AREA.

   ..PETERS.. 04/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33729274 34109144 34229047 34559000 34998969 34908933
               33998978 33878941 33878875 33828846 34248810 34118722
               33658723 32848755 32548807 32558969 32529077 32189198
               32129244 32199337 33729274 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2014
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