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Mesoscale Discussion 401
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1044 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL MS...FAR SERN AR AND FAR NERN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90...

   VALID 250344Z - 250415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 90
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE REMAINING VALID
   PORTION OF WW 90 ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   WITH A DIMINISHING TREND.  TEMPORAL EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT WATCH
   AND/OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE ARE NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW PER WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATED
   WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WSWLY FROM JACKSON MS SWD THROUGH SRN MS AND
   ACROSS ALL OF LA AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUED TO SHIFT
   EWD FROM THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS.  THIS LLJ
   WILL PROVIDE AN INFLUX OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...RESIDING OVER THE
   LOWER MS VALLEY...INTO THE SWRN EXTENT OF THE TSTM CLUSTER
   PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MS INTO WEST CENTRAL AL DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   SHOULD SUPPORT THE TSTM CLUSTER.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE WANING.  WEAKENING TRENDS IN THE
   WDSS-II MESH PRODUCT AND THE 7 KM AND 9 KM CAPPI SUGGEST THE OVERALL
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS DIMINISHING.  IN ADDITION...THE GOES-R
   OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT INDICATED A DIMINISHING TREND OVER EAST
   CENTRAL MS SUCH THAT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES ARE LIKELY WEAKENING. 

   ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SEWD INTO SERN AR
   AND NRN LA...THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE LOWER
   OH/TN VALLEYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THIS REGION SUGGESTS
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE QUITE LOW.

   ..PETERS.. 04/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32559133 33439066 33779007 33718827 33098824 32578840
               32528971 32559133 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2014
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