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Mesoscale Discussion 401
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1043 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...WEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...

   VALID 170343Z - 170515Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WW 94. NEW
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
   WEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE WW 94 EXPIRES AT 05Z.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CONTINUE ACROSS WW 94...WITH AN INCREASING TENDENCY FOR
   CONSOLIDATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH. WHILE SOME TORNADO THREAT
   REMAINS...GIVEN THAT THE SJT VWP SHOWS 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 300
   M2/S2...INCREASINGLY LINEAR MODE AND TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW TO SURGE
   AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPDRAFTS SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPER THE TORNADO
   RISK INTO LATE EVENING. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS OF
   WW 94...WHERE BACKBUILDING CONVECTION MAY BE MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED
   RELATIVE TO THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND WILL LIKELY REMAIN A THREAT BEYOND THE 05Z
   ISSUANCE TIME OF WW 94...GIVEN THE PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT
   CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE REGION AND PRESENCE OF AMPLE BUOYANCY AND
   SHEAR FROM WRN INTO CNTRL TX. 

   CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   N-CNTRL TX...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME EMANATING FROM THE
   GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO BECOME
   SURFACE-BASED...SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL EXIST
   WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. 

   GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CONSOLIDATING MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   WEST TEXAS AND INCREASING CONVECTION FURTHER EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
   TX...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE
   NEEDED BEFORE THE 05Z EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 94...INCLUDING AREAS
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT WATCH.

   ..DEAN/EDWARDS.. 04/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30900258 31440135 32340071 32790038 33170010 33399959
               33409905 33369843 33079799 31799837 30989906 30659944
               30430014 30370118 30320192 30320237 30560282 30900258 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2016
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