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Mesoscale Discussion 402
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...SWRN NJ...MD...DE...NRN VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 90...

   VALID 202101Z - 202300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 90 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
   THROUGH THE EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN A
   LEADING SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH CENTRAL NC INTO VA. MODIFIED 18Z
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE...AND
   VAD WINDS SHOW VEERING WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELLS CONTAINING HAIL.

   WEAK CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN A LIMITING FACTOR TO STORM SEVERITY BUT
   WITH TIME...STORMS MAY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS THE SHEAR
   CONTINUES TO ACT ON THEM. IN ADDITION...OTHER CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT FROM SERN PA INTO SRN NJ WHERE LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR IS STRONGEST. THIS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A
   TORNADO.

   ..JEWELL.. 04/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37947627 37937958 40587856 40567512 37947627 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2015
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