Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 402
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 402 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0402
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NC...SRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 251646Z - 251915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL
   INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY
   BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBS INDICATE LOWER/MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS
   SPREADING NWD OVER THE NC/VA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN IN ADVANCE
   OF A POTENT MID/UPPER PV MAX CROSSING THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS.
   DIURNAL HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG S OF A
   NWD-RETREATING WARM FRONT ANALYZED FROM SRN VA TO NERN NC.
   INCREASINGLY AGITATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CU AND INCIPIENT CONVECTION
   OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN SUGGEST THAT WARM-SECTOR INHIBITION IS
   LIMITED...AND STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS THE AREA AS DEEP ASCENT PRECEDING THE PV MAX AND ITS
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...
   STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW/DEEP SHEAR -- E.G. AROUND 50 KT 0-6-KM
   BULK SHEAR PER FCX VWP -- WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
   MODES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LONG/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   ENCOURAGED BY RELATIVELY BACKED SFC WINDS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG/E OF
   A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT -- WILL YIELD THE RISK FOR
   TORNADOES.

   ..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 04/25/2014


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...

   LAT...LON   35247551 34507665 34397806 34647901 35237998 36378029
               37067991 37487873 37537712 37157612 36397556 35247551 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 25, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities