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Mesoscale Discussion 403
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0403
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0424 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...87...

   VALID 202124Z - 202300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   86...87...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS PERSISTS ACROSS
   REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS 86 AND 87.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ERN EXTENT OF AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ERN GULF TO THE W-CNTRL FL
   PENINSULA IS CROSSING THE TAMPA BAY AREA AT PRESENT. THIS ACTIVITY
   WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD...WHERE MODEST DIURNAL SFC HEATING
   AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F HAS SUPPORTED
   MODERATE INSTABILITY. THE TBW VWP SAMPLES AROUND 40-45 KT OF
   MID-LEVEL FLOW CAPABLE OF MAINTAINING LOOSELY ORGANIZED STORM
   CLUSTERS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS -- AIDED BY WATER
   LOADING.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS 86 AND
   87...MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND GUSTS CONTINUE DURING THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
   CYCLE...THOUGH EARLIER CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING MAY RESTRICT THE
   OVERALL SVR-RISK TO SOME EXTENT.

   ..COHEN.. 04/20/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   27458240 27888243 28558153 28208055 26567991 25968041
               27258078 27758148 27458240 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2015
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