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Mesoscale Discussion 405
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0405
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171248Z - 171415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND THREAT WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED AHEAD OF
   A DECAYING LINE OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL/NORTHERN TX. THESE CELLS ARE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF
   MODEST INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
   WHILE INSTABILITY IS UNIMPRESSIVE...WIND PROFILE FROM THE GRK
   WSR-88D DOES INDICATED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1
   KM...RESULTING IN SRH VALUES NEAR 200 M2/S2...JUST AHEAD OF THE
   SOUTHEASTWARD SAGGING EFFECTIVE COOL FRONT. A NARROW CORRIDOR WILL
   EXIST ACROSS THE MCD AREA FOR CONTINUED ROTATING STORMS AT LEAST IN
   THE SHORT TERM. WITH NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT TOWARD THE FWD METROPLEX
   BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTS BECOME LESS
   FAVORABLE PER THE 12Z FWD RAOB. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 04/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31489854 32189775 32319725 32259677 31909669 31209691
               30799740 30709808 30759859 30839883 31129878 31489854 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2016
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