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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...PARTS OF NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 090422Z - 090545Z
CORRECTED FOR ADDITIONAL TEXT
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A CORRIDOR OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST
CO ACROSS CENTRAL NEB. MOST OF THESE STORMS ARE NORTH OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AN AXIS FROM
NORTHEAST CO...THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL NEB...TO NORTH OF OMA.
ALMOST ALL OF THESE STORMS ARE NOW NORTH OF A SAGGING COLD
FRONT...SEPARATING MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR TO THE
SOUTH...AND RAPIDLY COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTH.
DESPITE THE CONTINUED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES...THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PROGRESSIVELY DEEPER COLD AIRMASS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE STORM IN HITCHCOCK COUNTY NEB. THIS
STORM IS VERY NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HAS A HISTORY OF VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SIGNATURES. HOWEVER...EVEN THIS STORM
WILL LIKELY BE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE HAIL THREAT...A WATCH IS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME. ONE SCENARIO THAT MIGHT REQUIRE ACTION WOULD BE IF
STORMS COULD BEGIN TO FORWARD-PROPAGATE AND TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB.
..HART/DIAL.. 04/09/2013
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40860265 41339998 42109759 42139616 41499552 41159593
41189712 40809906 40030106 39790231 39910327 40490339
40860265
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