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Mesoscale Discussion 406
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0406
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0247 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 171947Z - 172115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS SOUTH
   CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...NWWD-MOVING OUTFLOW WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION IS
   PROPAGATING INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN AUS AND SAT ATTM. 
   FARTHER NORTH...LARGER PRECIP SHIELD OVER CENTRAL TX IS GENERATING
   SWD-MOVING WIND SHIFT THAT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND
   COULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INVOF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT. 
   LATEST MRMS DATA SUGGESTS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL HAS ACCOMPANIED
   STORM THAT LIFTED ACROSS UVALDE INTO BANDERA COUNTY.  SHEAR PROFILES
   FAVOR DEEP ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND VARIOUS OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES/INTERACTIONS COULD LOCALLY AID BRIEF TORNADO ACTIVITY. 
   WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CONVECTION FOR POSSIBLE WW.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 04/17/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29839961 30669799 30659683 30029745 28489833 28639939
               29839961 

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Page last modified: April 17, 2016
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