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Mesoscale Discussion 407
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0407
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0545 AM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NERN OK...ERN KS INTO WRN MO AND ADJACENT
   NWRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261045Z - 261245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...MOISTURE RETURN TO A DEVELOPING ZONE OF LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SUFFICIENT
   DESTABILIZATION FOR AN EVOLVING BAND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
   CONVECTION APPEARS GENERALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT
   AROUND THE 700 MB LEVEL...DELINEATING THE LEADING EDGE OF A WARMING
   AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO CONTINUE SPREADING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI
   VALLEY THROUGH THE 12-15Z TIME.  

   ALTHOUGH STRONGEST CORES HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY INCREASING IN
   INTENSITY...AND PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SMALL HAIL...CAPE APPEARS
   LIKELY TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEAK...WITH CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR
   ALSO WEAK TO MODEST IN STRENGTH AT BEST THROUGH MID MORNING.  AS A
   RESULT...LITTLE SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION IS
   ANTICIPATED...WITH STORMS LIKELY TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39269503 39569428 38439295 37029324 35799503 36839544
               37699597 39269503 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2014
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