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Mesoscale Discussion 408
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0821 PM CDT SUN APR 17 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180121Z - 180245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING-WIND RISK WILL DEVELOP
   THIS EVENING FROM AN INTENSE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING NORTHWARD
   OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0115Z...AN INTENSE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS
   ONGOING ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF RIO GRANDE CITY AND MOVING NORTHWARD
   TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. RADAR STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT VERY
   LARGE HAIL IS CURRENTLY BEING PRODUCED BY THIS CLUSTER...WITH MRMS
   MESH DATA INDICATING A MAX HAIL SIZE ABOVE TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER. 

   THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DEVELOPED FROM THE MERGER OF MULTIPLE
   LEFT-MOVING SUPERCELLS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE
   INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH 00Z RAOBS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONG
   BUOYANCY...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.
   THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LONGEVITY OF THIS CLUSTER WILL
   BE THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING AND RESULTING INCREASE IN CINH FOR
   SURFACE-BASED PARCELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE
   SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSCALE GROWTH /GIVEN THE PRESENCE
   OF MULTIPLE STRONG UPDRAFTS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY/...IT APPEARS LIKELY
   THAT THE SYSTEM WILL AT LEAST AFFECT PORTIONS OF STARR AND ZAPATA
   COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS BEFORE WEAKENING...WITH A THREAT OF
   LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. 

   GIVEN THE LIMITED AREA AFFECTED...WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT
   ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AREA.

   ..DEAN/EDWARDS.. 04/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   26259869 26379907 26849937 27039943 27229940 27269917
               27229902 27099889 26909882 26459867 26329863 26259869 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2016
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