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Mesoscale Discussion 409
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0934 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NY...NERN PA...NRN NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92...

   VALID 210234Z - 210400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
   CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS AMALGAMATED INTO MULTIPLE
   EWD-SPREADING...LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
   TO ADVANCE INTO MORE STABLE AIR N OF THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC WARM
   SECTOR...WITH FURTHER STATIC STABILITY OFFERED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING.
   THIS WILL LIMIT THE SVR RISK...AND NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED. HOWEVER...ENX/BGM VWPS SAMPLE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR CAPABLE
   OF MAINTAINING MODEST CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH RELATED MESOSCALE
   CIRCULATIONS ENHANCING SFC WIND GUSTS ACROSS REMAINING VALID
   PORTIONS OF WW 92 IN THE SHORT-TERM. THIS OVERALL RISK SHOULD WANE
   WITH TIME INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..COHEN.. 04/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   40937568 42207564 43327567 43517507 42887462 41647439
               40757466 40937568 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2015
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