MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1022 AM CDT MON APR 06 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 061522Z - 061615Z
   
   THREAT FOR STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS
   SRN/CENTRAL NJ THROUGH EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON...UNTIL AROUND
   18Z.
   
   REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED STORMS MOVING QUICKLY NEWD AT 50-60 KT
   ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL NJ.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF
   A SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN MD THROUGH SRN NJ TO
   ALONG LONG ISLAND.  HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGESTED THESE
   STORMS ARE ELEVATED GIVEN STRONG SURFACE BASED INHIBITION. 
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 20-30 KT SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS WEAKLY
   ORGANIZED...BUT STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ WILL
   MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES.
   
   ..PETERS.. 04/06/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...
   
   LAT...LON   38837500 39667524 40277461 40547397 40357347 39507394
               38837500