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Mesoscale Discussion 409
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX INCLUDING THE NORTH HALF OF THE
   HOUSTON METRO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180502Z - 180700Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT PER WPC MPD
   127...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOW
   NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
   HOUSTON METRO INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX.  GREATEST THREAT
   FOR THESE ISOLATED STRONG WINDS SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN GRIMES
   AND HARRIS COUNTIES TO SAN JACINTO AND LIBERTY COUNTIES.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC AND SINGLE-SITE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
   EVOLUTION OF A WELL-ORGANIZED COMPACT CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH AN MCV
   LOCATED NEAR THE BORDERS OF GRIMES/MONTGOMERY/HARRIS COUNTIES SINCE
   0330-04Z. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST
   MONTGOMERY TO WESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES...WHILE VELOCITY DATA PER
   WSR-88D HGX RADAR INDICATED A REAR-INFLOW JET AND STRONG
   SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ON THE LEADING EDGE.  50 KT WAS
   DETECTED AT APPROXIMATELY 4500 FEET AGL IN NORTH-CENTRAL HARRIS
   COUNTY AND UP TO 60 KT AT 55-60 KT AT APPROXIMATELY 7500 FEET IN
   SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY.  

   GIVEN THE MCV POSSIBLY LOCALLY ENHANCING NEARBY WIND FIELDS AND THE
   AFOREMENTIONED WIND SPEEDS...LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE
   PROCESS OF PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH AT LEAST 07Z AS THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
   NORTHEAST.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 04/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29699566 30079577 30319598 30419593 30609557 30719509
               30599491 30329477 30009476 29849506 29699566 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2016
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