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Mesoscale Discussion 410
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NC...SRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 210337Z - 210430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SQUALL LINE IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ACROSS NCNTRL NC INTO
   EXTREME SCNTRL VA.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DEEPENED ALONG WIND SHIFT FROM
   JUST WEST OF AVC...SWWD INTO RANDOLPH COUNTY NC.  A NARROW SQUALL
   LINE MAY CONTINUE TO MATURE ALONG FAVORABLE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
   CONFLUENCE BENEATH PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH.  00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS
   THIS REGION EXHIBIT STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WHICH APPEARS TO BE
   SUPPORTING ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST
   MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION BUT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR
   DOES SUPPORT LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW
   LONG THIS CONVECTION WILL LAST BUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY
   BE REQUIRED IF SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY.

   ..DARROW/CORFIDI.. 04/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35657979 36477860 37077788 36967722 35997773 35397892
               35657979 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2015
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