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Mesoscale Discussion 410
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0622 PM CDT SAT APR 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH TX INTO SWRN
   OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262322Z - 270045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND WRN NORTH TX INTO SWRN OK ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.  A TSTM HAD DEVELOPED
   IN FISHER COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A N-S
   ORIENTED CORRIDOR...GENERALLY 35-45 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
   35 S ABI TO 20 N LTS....WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
   INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO
   SHOW TWO DRY LINES OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS.  ONE
   EXTENDED FROM ALONG THE WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE BORDER SWWD TO 25 N MAF
   AND THEN SWD TO 25 WSW OF SANDERSON TX. A SECOND DRY LINE WAS
   LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE FIRST ONE AND WAS RETREATING SLOWLY WWD
   PER TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY INVOF OF ABI NWD INTO FAR SWRN OK.  THIS
   SECOND DRY LINE APPEARS TO BE DELINEATING HIGHER MOISTURE RETURN
   WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO ITS EAST COUPLED WITH
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER-MID 90S ALONG THIS DRY LINE
   FEATURE.  THESE OBSERVED THERMODYNAMICS HAVE AIDED IN WEAKENING OF
   SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER.

   TRENDS IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM EXTREME
   SWRN OK TO SJT HAVE BACKED TO SLY...WHILE WINDS AT THE SAME LEVEL
   FROM AMA-MAF WERE WSWLY INDICATING A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
   PRIMARILY ALONG THE SECOND DRY LINE.  IT IS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH
   A WEAKENED CAP THAT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TOWERING CU
   AND A COUPLE CB/S.  A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE DETECTED IN
   FISHER COUNTY TX AROUND 2245Z.  THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPARENT MIDLEVEL
   IMPULSE OR JET STREAK TRACKING NEWD THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TX AT THIS
   TIME.  ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE IS ALSO LIKELY AIDING IN THE
   INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ALONG THE DRY LINE
   WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  FURTHER W/NWWD MOISTURE RETURN INTO
   THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE EARLY EVENING SHOULD BOOST INSTABILITY FOR
   MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT POTENTIAL.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT
   ORIENTED ACROSS THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT DISCRETE STORMS...WITH A
   STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. 
   MEANWHILE...LARGE SURFACE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS /35-40 DEGREES/ TEND
   TO RESULT IN LP SUPERCELLS ENHANCING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS.  IF TSTM COVERAGE AND/OR INTENSITY INCREASES
   SUFFICIENTLY...THEN A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 04/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32330052 33410017 34729990 35029959 34839873 33879857
               32359870 31989919 31600041 32330052 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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