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Mesoscale Discussion 410
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0429 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 180929Z - 181030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO
   BEFORE THE SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. LIMITED SPATIAL AND
   TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A
   WW.

   DISCUSSION...KDFX RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LONE SUPERCELL MOVING EWD
   ACROSS KINNEY COUNTY. MRMS MESH OVER 2 INCHES WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED
   WITH MORE RECENT SCANS INDICATING HAIL SIZES CLOSER TO ONE INCH.
   VELOCITY DATA FROM KDFX SUGGESTS THE STORM HAS BEEN MORE OUTFLOW
   DOMINANT WITH A REDUCTION IN THE UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS A RESULT. THIS
   GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE STORM
   TRANSITIONS TO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE. EVEN WITH THIS
   TRANSITION...SOME HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORM MERGERS OCCURRING WITH
   DOWNSTREAM WAA-INITIATED ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED LIMITED
   SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...

   LAT...LON   29480068 29720047 29810014 29789930 29579891 29259885
               29019891 28909904 28879919 28869952 28899992 29000050
               29480068 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2016
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