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Mesoscale Discussion 411
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0510 AM CDT MON APR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TX COAST/HOUSTON METRO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 181010Z - 181145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER
   TX COAST/HOUSTON METRO AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE THE
   TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...IT IS NON-ZERO. ANY SEVERE WEATHER
   IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN SPACE AN TIME AND A WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...THE BAND OF FLOODING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL HAD
   DEVELOPED THAT FORWARD SPEED OF SOUTHEAST STORM MOTION HAS INCREASED
   SOME OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO...WITH STRONGER REAR INFLOW EVIDENT ON
   RADAR. AS THE BAND SHIFTS SOUTHEAST...BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
   CURVED HODOGRAPHS PER HGX WSR-88D VWP COULD LEAD TO SOME
   MESOVORTEX-LIKE FEATURES ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE OF
   STORMS. ADDITIONALLY...PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES COULD LEAD TO
   PRECIP LOADING...RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE TORNADO
   THREAT APPEARS LOW...A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THESE
   MESOVORTEX FEATURES WILL REMAIN TRANSIENT AND SHORT-LIVED...WITH THE
   MAIN THREAT CONTINUING TO BE FLOODING RAINFALL. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS
   NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 04/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30279522 30429509 30469499 30379483 30279477 29999475
               29809472 29569476 29479493 29369521 29339559 29369585
               29459609 29619617 29749606 29699572 29809548 29919537
               30069529 30279522 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2016
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