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Mesoscale Discussion 411
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NC/FAR SOUTHEAST VA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 93...

   VALID 210633Z - 210800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK CONTINUES OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
   FAR NORTHEAST NC/EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA. TORNADO WATCH 93 CONTINUES
   UNTIL 09Z.

   DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF
   CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ACROSS
   NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL NC...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THIS
   CONVECTIVE LINE NEAR/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF I-95 IN AREAS JUST
   NORTHEAST OF ROCKY MOUNT AS OF 0615Z. THE PRECEDING AIR MASS REMAINS
   MODESTLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY INHIBITED AMID MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F.  

   LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY WEAK/SOUTHERLY...WHILE STRONG /40+ KT/
   WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE TENDED TO VEER AND ARE NOW MORE
   UNIFORM SOUTHWESTERLY PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA. WITH AID OF
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...A QUASI-LINEAR MODE SHOULD
   REMAIN PREVALENT AS STORMS SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.
   PARTICULARLY GIVEN A TREND OF WEAKENING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
   SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE LINE...THE STRONGEST/MOST-ORGANIZED STORMS
   INCLUDING SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO ACROSS FAR
   NORTHEAST NC AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA...PARTICULARLY AS
   STORMS INTERACT WITH IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING OUTFLOW. LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO RISK REMAIN POSSIBLE.

   ..GUYER.. 04/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35817865 36497722 36897682 36737609 36147619 35707772
               35817865 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2015
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