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Mesoscale Discussion 412
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN KS INTO SWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211936Z - 212130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON WITH BOTH HAIL AND WIND. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD
   REMAIN ISOLATED.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS LEADING TO STEEP DEEP TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION AND NEAR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. CU
   FIELDS ARE INCREASING RAPIDLY DUE TO DEEP MIXING AND WEAK
   CONVERGENCE. 

   MODIFIED MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS
   PRESENT...AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE QUALITY OF THE
   MOISTURE JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. A MORE RECENT 17Z LMN SOUNDING
   SHOWS VERY LITTLE MLCAPE. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT
   PERHAPS A RELATIVELY HIGHER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS
   PRESENT ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK WITH GPS PWAT SENSORS INDICATING UP
   TO 0.75 INCHES. ALL SAID...CONTINUED HEATING AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD
   RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SERN KS INTO SRN MO...AND
   COLD AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL MAXIMIZE
   ANY HAIL POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD BE COLD BUT
   AGAIN THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 04/21/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   36859491 37209630 37559684 37889640 38099551 38089394
               38049313 37769200 37219183 36619223 36469313 36759433
               36859491 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2015
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