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Mesoscale Discussion 412
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 181757Z - 182000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE HAIL THE
   LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE WELL INTO THE 80S F
   ACROSS SRN TX AHEAD OF A SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH STRONG
   INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST WESTERLIES
   ALOFT WILL FAVOR SEWD-MOVING SUPERCELLS...AND PERHAPS BOWING STORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL THEN DAMAGING WINDS.

   A RECENT INCREASE OF STORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. SOME OF THE NRN CELLS HAVE
   SINCE BECOME UNDERCUT BUT THE SRN CELL APPROACHING FAR NWRN WEBB
   COUNTY APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITSELF VIA ESEWD PROPAGATION ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY. THIS CELL MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH A HAIL AND WIND
   THREAT IF IT CAN CONTINUE TO STAY CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY AND AS
   TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM UPSTREAM.

   OTHER CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WITH STILL
   OTHERS FORMING OVER MEXICO AND THREATENING THE LOWER RIVER VALLEY
   LATER TODAY.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 04/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28530043 28629947 28389848 27769706 27419721 27169729
               26379717 25709704 26069872 26329922 27019950 27489979
               27880014 28530043 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2016
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