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Mesoscale Discussion 413
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...E-CNTRL/SE AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271105Z - 271200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MS AND W-CNTRL AR
   AS ONGOING TSTM CONTINUE NEWD. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT AS WELL
   AS LOW COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS
   WILL BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS WITHIN A ZONE OF WAA QUICKLY INTENSIFIED AS THEY
   ENCOUNTERED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL AR SEWD ACROSS NRN
   MS AND INTO W-CNTRL AL. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT MAY ALSO BE OCCURRING
   AS A RESULT OF A WEAK PERTURBATION OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   OVER THE SABINE VALLEY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A RESULT OF STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION...EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
   ONGOING TSTMS. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR CONTINUATION AND
   PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS. SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT
   THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD HINDER MORE THAN BRIEF STORM
   ORGANIZATION. LIMITED SVR COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT
   SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34549245 34779229 35069124 34919025 34348921 33708848
               33288833 32448853 31618923 31719004 32269071 33049124
               33949202 34309229 34549245 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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