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Mesoscale Discussion 413
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0323 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF SWRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 182023Z - 182230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST VERY LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TSTM
   OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LINGERING CONVECTIVE BAND AFFECTING
   PORTIONS OF SWRN LA. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A REMNANT LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE...ASSOCIATED WITH A
   LONG-LIVED MCS...HAS STALLED OVER SWRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
   ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE CLOUD-LAYER SLY FLOW SAMPLED BY THE
   LCH VWP. WEAKLY UNSTABLE...MOIST...ESELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW WILL ALLOW
   THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY EDGE EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. VERY
   MODEST DIURNAL HEATING OF THIS INFLOW...AIDED BY FILTERED INSOLATION
   AMIDST TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS/ANVIL...IS SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY
   GIVEN SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. FURTHERMORE...
   THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 25 KT OF BULK SHEAR IN THE 0-1-KM AND 0-6-KM
   LAYERS SAMPLED BY THE LCH VWP IS SUPPORTING ORGANIZED LEWP
   STRUCTURES/MESO-VORTICES EVIDENT FROM KLCH RADAR DATA. AN ISOLATED
   SVR WIND GUST AND/OR WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO COULD ACCOMPANY THIS
   ACTIVITY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS -- CENTERED AROUND PEAK DIURNAL
   HEATING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER POLEWARD FLUXES OF
   RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
   LINE-ORTHOGONAL SHEAR...ANY SVR RISK SHOULD BE SPATIALLY RESTRICTED.
   POOR TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE DETRIMENTAL TO SUPPORTING
   A GREATER SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/18/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29759337 30069338 30319338 30399318 30439304 30299281
               30039266 29729262 29709295 29759337 

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Page last modified: April 18, 2016
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