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Mesoscale Discussion 413
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 220755Z - 221030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED STORMS MAY GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT/EARLY
   THIS MORNING AND POSE A RISK FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY STRONGER
   WINDS FROM THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN OK.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED EARLY
   IN THE OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR A
   SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KS...AND A BIT SOUTH
   OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WESTERN OK. FRONT
   UPLIFT ASIDE...A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN
   WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WHILE REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA
   IMPLIES INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WITH A STRENGTHENING
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST TX AND
   WESTERN OK. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...A RECENT 05Z
   OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM LAMONT IN NORTH-CENTRAL OK SAMPLED A
   RELATIVELY MOISTURE-STARVED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...ALTHOUGH SOME
   ADDITIONAL MOISTENING WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
   THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

   INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
   HOURS SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO INTENSIFY. GIVEN MODEST ELEVATED
   BUOYANCY /GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE 850 MB/ AND 35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR...SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   UPDRAFTS. WHILE HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY RISK GIVEN THE ELEVATED
   NATURE OF THE UPDRAFTS...SOME LOCALLY STRONGER NEAR-SURFACE WINDS
   MAY BECOME POSSIBLE AS STORMS AGGREGATE COINCIDENT WITH A RELATIVELY
   DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36130076 36999796 36649669 36169666 34509841 35260039
               36130076 

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Page last modified: April 22, 2015
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