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Mesoscale Discussion 414
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0624 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 221124Z - 221330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...POCKETS OF SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS REMAIN
   POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK
   THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SOUTH OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS ACROSS
   NORTHERN OK...UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH CONTINUES TO OCCUR EARLY
   THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL OK...INCLUDING A STRONG/SEVERE
   BOWING COMPLEX THAT IS QUICKLY /40 KT/ MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
   THE ANADARKO/CHICKASHA/LAWTON AND I-44 VICINITY AS OF 1115Z/615AM
   CDT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOL /50S F SURFACE TEMPERATURES/
   AND RELATIVELY DRY...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT A 35-40
   KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE
   ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INFLOW...PARTICULARLY INTO THE SOUTHWEST
   FLANK OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. WHILE THE UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE
   MODE WILL TEND TO HINDER LARGER HAILSTONES...LINE-EMBEDDED CORES
   AND/OR REGENERATIVE WESTERN-FLANK DEVELOPMENT ATOP OUTFLOW/MESO-HIGH
   COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO SEVERE LEVELS. AFOREMENTIONED COOL/RELATIVELY
   DRY NATURE OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL TEND TO HINDER
   SEVERE-CALIBER WIND GUSTS...BUT FACTORS SUCH AS AN INCREASINGLY FAST
   FORWARD MOTION OF THE BOW ECHO AND A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER COULD
   NONETHELESS YIELD LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 04/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36249994 36179906 35429837 35839736 35539623 34849602
               33799701 34509891 36249994 

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Page last modified: April 22, 2015
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