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Mesoscale Discussion 414
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...CNTRL/ERN OK...N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 92...93...

   VALID 271255Z - 271430Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   92...93...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WW 92 AND 93
   WITH AN ADDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS S OF WW 93 IN N
   TX. TSTMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED WITH EWD
   PROGRESSION...INCREASING THE THREAT OF BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND
   TORNADOES.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY WITHIN THE TWO WATCHES APPEARS TO BE PART
   OF TWO SEPARATE REGIMES. 

   ACTIVITY WITHIN WW 92 IS LIKELY TIED TO INCREASED ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX. THIS ACTIVITY
   WAS INITIALLY ELEVATED /CONFIRMED BY 12Z TOP SOUNDING/ AND WILL
   LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS IT PROGRESSES
   NEWD. AS A RESULT...THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS SEVERE HAIL. ANY
   SURFACE-BASED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON
   WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

   MOST OF THE TSTMS IN WW 93 APPEAR TO BE SURFACE /OR AT LEAST
   NEAR-SURFACE/ ORIENTATED AS A MORE EWD MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH
   RECENT RADAR IMAGERY. SEVERE GUSTS HAVE ALSO ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.
   THIS ACTIVITY INITIATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT HAS NOW DECOUPLED
   FROM IT AND MOVED INTO THE WARM SECTOR. WARM SECTOR ACROSS ERN OK
   MAY STILL BE A BIT HOSTILE TOWARDS SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION BUT THAT
   SHOULD CHANGE QUICKLY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NWD AND LARGE
   SCALE LIFT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE SVR RISK WILL
   CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES. 

   FARTHER S...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT
   ACROSS NW TX WITH ELEVATED TSTMS AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS N TX. SOME
   ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE SURFACE-BASED STORMS FARTHER W.

   ..MOSIER.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...FWD...
   OUN...GID...

   LAT...LON   34579491 33089572 32699624 32559690 32619781 32779832
               33119855 33759855 34839834 37389803 39959769 40319637
               39879525 37649463 36629461 34579491 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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