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Mesoscale Discussion 415
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1008 PM CDT MON APR 18 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97...

   VALID 190308Z - 190415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 97
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...REMAINDER WW MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
   SCHEDULED...EXCEPT WHERE CANCELED EARLY LOCALLY.

   DISCUSSION...AGGREGATED COLD POOL FROM EARLIER CONVECTION FARTHER
   N...REINFORCED BY PRIOR ACTIVITY OVER THIS REGION...HAS STABILIZED
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY.  THIS CONTRIBUTES TO MLCINH
   100-250 J/KG IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS...OVER MUCH OF
   AREA N OF RIO GRANDE.  ELEVATED WAA MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDELY
   SCATTERED TSTMS N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT HAS SURGED WELL SWWD INTO
   MEX...AND ISOLATED/BRIEF HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
   DEFINITIVELY INVOF RIO GRANDE...ESPECIALLY NW MFE WHERE POCKETS OF
   FAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LINGER ABOVE COLD POOL. 
   HOWEVER...PRIND ORGANIZED SVR THREAT HAS WANED SUFFICIENTLY THAT WW
   IS NO LONGER NEEDED PAST NOMINAL 04Z EXPIRATION.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   25949710 25939732 25839735 25859753 26019763 26049778
               26069798 26059814 26229846 26229864 26369878 26419909
               26509910 26869928 26919938 26989937 27039944 27229943
               27329951 27569943 27459926 26989862 26759856 26549833
               26549784 26659746 26589726 26279717 25949710 

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Page last modified: April 19, 2016
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