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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN AL...NRN GA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118...
VALID 151438Z - 151545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 118
CONTINUES.
ORIGINAL WW -- SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 15Z -- WILL BE EXTENDED
LOCALLY FOR SOME NERN AL COUNTIES AHEAD OF SRN PORTION OF ONGOING
CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE DAMAGING WIND AND MRGL SVR HAIL THREAT
REMAINS MOST CONCENTRATED IN NEAR TERM. SVR POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
AS AREA OF LOW LEVEL ASCENT NOW REPRESENTING SRN PORTION MCS MOVES
INTO DESTABILIZING AND FAVORABLY SHEARED AIR MASS OVER NRN GA.
THEREFORE ADDITIONAL/TORNADO WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARY LOW ELONGATED OVER ERN/SRN AR...BUT
WITH SECONDARY MESOLOW OVER N-CENTRAL AL...COLLOCATED WITH ONGOING
BAND OF CONVECTION. WARM FRONT CURRENTLY HAS DOUBLE STRUCTURE WITH
SRN MEMBER EXTENDING FROM BHM AREA SEWD ACROSS SWRN GA...AND NRN
MEMBER BEING OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BOUNDARY THROUGH LGC-MCN-AGS AREAS.
MESOLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE/PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS NRN GA INTO
CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BECOMING PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE
CENTER. THIS PROGGED TREND IS SUPPORTED BY LAST TWO HOURS OF
ISALLOBARIC FALL/RISE COUPLET DEVELOPMENT/MOTION ACROSS NRN AL.
THIS PROCESS WILL SUPPORT BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENLARGED
HODOGRAPHS ALONG OUTFLOW-REINFORCED SFC FRONT THAT SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NRN GA DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FAIRLY
QUICKLY FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON INVOF SFC
BOUNDARY...WHERE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR WILL
SET UP. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS MUCH
OF ERN/NERN GA...WHICH WILL AID IN DESTABILIZATION ALONG WITH SFC
MOIST ADVECTION FROM REGION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS NOW OVER SERN
AL/SWRN GA...S OF SRN WARM FRONTAL SEGMENT. STG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES ARE FCST WITH FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 03/15/2008
ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...
33718707 34118625 34708564 34478448 34568350 34188294
33508245 33098273 32968372 33118503 33578688
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