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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT THU APR 09 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092321Z - 100015Z
ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG ARCING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGE JUST AHEAD OF APPROACHING DRYLINE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER A LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL
EXTENT. THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.
AS OF 2315Z...AN ISOLATED TSTM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE LEE/FAYETTE
COUNTY LINES ALONG AND EAST OF A SLOWLY WWD-MOVING FINE LINE EVIDENT
ON KEWX RADAR. THIS FINE LINE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF
MOISTURE SURGE CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
FARTHER WEST...DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MARCH EWD STRETCHING FROM NEAR
CRS TO 30 S BAZ. AN AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE LOCATED ALONG
THE DRY LINE ALONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 60 KT /PER LEDBETTER TX
PROFILER/...WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION FARTHER E AND BASE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING E OF THIS REGION...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND LIKELY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY NEAR SUNSET.
..GRAMS.. 04/09/2009
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30929572 29869627 29199698 29219740 30009719 31229653
31549612 31359578 30929572
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