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Mesoscale Discussion 417
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0417
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO AND SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271537Z - 271730Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING THE RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WIND...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM EXTREME
   ERN KS THROUGH WRN MO AND SWRN IA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
   AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...BROKEN LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL AND IS
   MOVING EAST AT AROUND 25 KT. THE ATMOSPHERE EAST OF THE LINE IS
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS STILL CAPPED AND HAS NOT YET UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT
   DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS ARE NOW EVIDENT WITHIN THE
   MULTILAYER CLOUDS ACROSS WRN MO AND THE SFC LAYER CONTINUES TO
   MOISTEN WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE SLY LLJ
   AXIS. DEEP LAYER WIND AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE IN THIS
   REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS A MID-LEVEL JET ROTATES NEWD ALONG THE SERN
   PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN KS. THUS THE
   ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
   WHILE CONVECTIVE MODE IS NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
   TORNADO ACTIVITY...SOME CHANGE IN CHARACTER OF THE STORMS MAY OCCUR
   WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AND DEEP LAYER WINDS STRENGTHEN.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   36609451 37249483 38139494 39529525 40449549 41059498
               40879387 39709322 36969352 36609451 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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