MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR/WRN TN/NRN MS/NWRN AL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 151523Z - 151630Z
   
   INCREASING HAIL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ERN AR/WRN
   TN/NRN MS/NWRN AL. 
   
   MAIN SURFACE LOW ACROSS ERN AR/WRN TN WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HRS. WAA ATOP A STABLE LAYER OF AIR IN ADDITION TO
   STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THE UPPER LOW HAS
   INFLUENCED AN ELEVATED LAYER OF INSTABILITY. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR 50 KTS AHEAD OF CURRENT CONVECTION WILL ALLOW
   HAIL THREAT TO CONTINUE. 
   
   AHEAD OF SFC LOW...SLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THE
   SFC...WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S DEW POINTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HRS DOWNSTREAM. ADDITIONALLY...SFC HEATING SHOULD INCREASE...AS
   SHOWN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WITH CLEARING ACROSS WRN TN AND NRN
   MS/AL...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO
   BECOME SURFACE BASED. 
   
   ATTM...EXPECT THE MAIN THREAT TO BE MARGINAL HAIL.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 03/15/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...LZK...
   
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