Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 418
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 418 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0348 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/S-CNTRL OK...AND NW TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192048Z - 192315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ORGANIZING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE TX S PLAINS ARE
   FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
   THE EVENING...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR
   WIND/HAIL. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP IMPLIES A LOBE OF ASCENT
   GLANCING PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS. THIS IS
   ENCOURAGING CONTINUED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN PROXIMITY TO A SFC
   BOUNDARY ANALYZED NE/SW FROM N OF CHILDRESS TO S OF PLAINVIEW. TO
   THE E...THIS BOUNDARY IS WAVY -- EXTENDING GENERALLY EWD/NEWD ACROSS
   OKLAHOMA -- AND MESONET OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT LIES FROM NEAR
   MANGUM TO NORMAN.

   MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD DECKS ON EITHER SIDE OF
   THE BOUNDARY HAVE BEEN ERODING. THIS HAS GIVEN WAY TO FILTERED
   INSOLATION...CONTRIBUTING TO DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING AND RECENT
   NWD EDGING OF THE BOUNDARY IN PARTS OF SW/CNTRL OK. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/S
   OF THE BOUNDARY ARE YIELDING SBCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG DESPITE
   MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTENANCE
   OF ONGOING W TX CONVECTION...GIVEN 40-50 KT OF MID-LEVEL WSWLY FLOW
   SAMPLED BY THE LBB VWP -- LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE IMPULSE-RELATED
   ASCENT LOBE. INCIPIENT WARM-ADVECTION-DRIVEN CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY
   DEVELOPING SSW/S OF CHILDRESS...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MERGE
   WITH ALREADY-ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

   THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...UPSCALE GROWTH -- WITH NWD DEVELOPMENT --
   OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...GIVEN CONTINUED
   DESTABILIZATION OF RELATIVELY MOIST INFLOW. RESULTANT ACTIVITY
   SHOULD SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL LIMITED
   DEGREE OF BUOYANCY...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH
   POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33490115 34430023 35119889 35279770 35069720 34439728
               33449854 32990036 33490115 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 19, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities