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Mesoscale Discussion 419
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192311Z - 200045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTHWEST TX...AND MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO WEST-CENTRAL TX THIS
   EVENING. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
   GUSTS...AND A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...ARE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
   REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW A MATURE STORM
   LOCATED OVER SRN PECOS COUNTY HAS RECENTLY ACQUIRED A SSEWD MOTION
   TOWARDS SANDERSON /AS OF 2300Z/ AND HAS EXHIBITED THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. MORE RECENT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WAS OCCURRING
   NW OF THIS AREA...NEAR FORT STOCKTON...AND RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST A
   LONGER-LIVED CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY EVOLVE AND SPREAD EWD...WITH
   FORCING FOR ASCENT PERHAPS AIDED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A
   MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE MOVING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS.
    
   THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO FAVOR A PRIMARY THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DISCRETE
   CONVECTIVE MODE CURRENTLY OBSERVED. A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO THREAT MAY
   ALSO EXIST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURE THAT EXISTS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS SHOULD
   BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SPATIALLY BY RELATIVELY MILD TEMPERATURES
   /GENERALLY 70S F/ E OF ONGOING CONVECTION...SUGGESTING MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. 10-20 KT OF AMBIENT 0-1 KM AGL
   FLOW WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN EARLIER SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT REGIONAL
   VWP DATA. HOWEVER...STRONG-WIND POTENTIAL MAY LOCALLY INCREASE THIS
   EVENING IF A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER/COLD POOL CAN MATERIALIZE INTO
   WEST-CENTRAL TX. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL IS
   CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED TO
   PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE THIS EVENING...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 04/19/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31789912 31159915 30280090 29800195 29740255 30030273
               31030290 31720279 32140194 32520048 32519937 31789912 

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