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Mesoscale Discussion 419
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 221907Z - 222130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND EVOLVE SEWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND PERHAPS
   EXTREME SWRN OK. VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   AND A  TORNADO OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU FIELDS EXPANDING ACROSS FAR
   ERN NM N OF CLOVIS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE S AND W OF A STALLED
   FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...RESPECTIVELY. HERE...INSTABILITY IS
   INCREASING DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...WITH STRONG HEATING AND
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION OUT OF THE SE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING
   INTO THE UPPER 50S TOWARD THE CAPROCK.

   BY 20-21Z...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE AND WILL DEVELOP
   SE...POSSIBLY LASTING SEVERAL HOURS WITH SWATHS OF VERY LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN STRONGEST NEAR OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...FROM AMA TO SPS.

   ..JEWELL/HART.. 04/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34080233 34380294 34810318 35150314 35440267 35390183
               35050062 34679897 34459837 34149800 33539798 33219829
               32979902 33009996 33170054 33400107 34080233 

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Page last modified: April 22, 2015
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