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Mesoscale Discussion 420
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 94...

   VALID 221929Z - 222030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 94 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE COAST. ADDITIONAL
   THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH BUT SHOULD NOT POSE A
   SEVERE THREAT. THEREFORE THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT
   TRENDS CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MATURE
   SUPERCELL ON THE SOUTHERN END IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST.
   ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
   ACTIVITY WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE CONVECTIVELY-OVERTURNED AIR MASS AND
   RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 850-750 MB LAYER SLOWLY
   SPREADING OVER THE AREA. THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
   DIMINISH AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER TO A SOUTHERLY
   DIRECTION.

   THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF THE WATCH AREA HAS BECOME VERY WARM AND
   MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
   70S.  HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED WARMING ALOFT AND THE APPARENT
   SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO
   PREVENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THIS AREA WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE FOLLOWING FEW
   HOURS.

   ..CONIGLIO/GLEASON/HART.. 04/22/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...

   LAT...LON   27329696 27319769 27329840 27659863 28379851 28529819
               28659780 28819702 28459654 28169619 27959638 27709662
               27329696 

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Page last modified: April 22, 2015
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