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Mesoscale Discussion 421
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN CO...FAR SW NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271748Z - 272015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A BAND OF
   CONVECTION ON THE CUSP OF THE LOW-LEVEL DRY SLOT. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INCREASED IN A NARROW BAND
   ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRY SLOT ACROSS NERN CO...COINCIDENT
   WITH A NARROW AXIS OF 500 J/KG SBCAPE NOTED BY RECENT OBJECTIVE
   MESOANALYSIS. DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL NOT FAVOR ORGANIZED
   STORM STRUCTURES...BUT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH
   RICH SURFACE VORTICITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW WILL RESULT IN
   A THREAT OF ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39160281 39510301 39950296 40500279 40780256 41020230
               41370200 41240135 40620186 40060225 39920233 39690238
               39410237 39230235 39160237 39160281 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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