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Mesoscale Discussion 422
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0159 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MOST OF MO...CNTRL IA...FAR WRN IL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...

   VALID 271859Z - 272000Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 95...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN MO
   WHERE SOME HEATING HAS OCCURRED. DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE WILL
   LIKELY BE REQUIRED INTO ERN MO/WRN IL AND PERHAPS SERN IA BEFORE
   20Z.

   DISCUSSION...AS OF 1830Z...AN EXTENSIVE QLCS RUNS FROM WRN IA INTO
   W-CNTRL MO...WITH DAMAGE AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO NOTED RECENTLY NEAR
   ODESSA MISSOURI. SOME CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
   AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS ERN MO...ALLOWING MLCAPE TO RISE TO
   1000-1500 J/KG PER RECENT OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS. WITH SUFFICIENT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE...THE SRN PART OF THE QLCS IS LIKELY TO
   MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT HEADS INTO ERN MO/WRN IL...WHERE ANOTHER WATCH
   ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY BY 20Z. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED
   LINEAR MODE...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT
   LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH TIME AHEAD OF THE
   LINE. 

   IN THE NORTHERN PART OF WW 95 ACROSS CNTRL/ERN IA...CLOUDINESS AND
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION...BUT SOME
   CLEARING/WARMING ACROSS ERN IA MAY HELP TO SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND
   RISK IN THIS AREA TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH. 

   ACROSS WRN MO...COOL AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD IN THE
   WAKE OF THE QLCS. SOME REGENERATION OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED
   ACROSS SWRN MO...WHERE STEEP UPSTREAM LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A
   LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL RISK IN THE NEAR TERM. WHILE THE MAIN PACIFIC
   FRONT IS STILL WELL TO THE WEST...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL HOURS
   FOR SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS RECOVERY TO OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE QLCS.

   ..DEAN.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   37669449 39159403 40539434 41299479 42129547 42569525
               42679427 41979261 41549196 39959120 39539085 39079055
               38689041 38319036 37859076 37619120 37499160 37459212
               37229388 37189461 37669449 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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