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Mesoscale Discussion 422
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0422
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NW TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

   VALID 200439Z - 200645Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE-HAIL POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
   HOURS IN WW...THOUGH GENERAL DECREASE IN HAIL SIZE IS EXPECTED AS
   STORM MODES BECOME MORE QUASI-LINEAR.  ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ALSO
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  WW MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY TSTM BAND.

   DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS MOVING ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS WW
   AREA HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SVR HAIL DURING PAST COUPLE
   HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE MODE IS BECOMING MORE DENSE WITH
   TIME...MOST INTENSE/EMBEDDED CELLS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE SVR-HAIL
   THREAT PRIMARILY IN CORRIDOR FROM NEAR GLE SWWD ACROSS MWL/ABI
   CORRIDOR AND VICINITY.  ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 40-50 KT
   EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDE ARE EVIDENT OVER THAT SWATH...BASED ON
   BLEND OF MODIFIED FWD RAOB AND SHORT-TERM MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS. 
   SUCH GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS DECREASE IN BUOYANCY AND STRENGTHENING
   OF MUCINH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT...ACROSS N-CENTRAL TX FROM ABOUT
   I-20 NWD...AS DIABATIC COOLING PROCEEDS.

   AIR MASS FARTHER S INVOF COM-BWD-SEP LINE MAY TAKE SOMEWHAT LONGER
   TO STABILIZE TO LEVELS LESS FAVORABLE FOR SVR...GIVEN PRESENCE OF
   BROAD/35-45-KT SLYS ATOP BOUNDARY LAYER AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE
   TRANSPORT/WAA.  MEANWHILE...QLCS MODE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE
   PREVALENT...AS DEEP-SHEAR AND MEAN-WIND VECTORS ASSUME SUBSTANTIAL
   COMPONENT PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND.  SVR THREAT
   WWD ACROSS NRN PERMIAN BASIN REGION APPEARS MRGL AND WILL BE
   RESTRICTED BY LINEAR MODE...WEAKER SHEAR AND TENDENCY FOR
   UNDERCUTTING BY BOUNDARY.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32250278 32550200 32630108 32580031 32729964 33029892
               33419811 33819758 34019718 34009617 33879580 33549583
               33059623 32629679 32089753 31639843 31449933 31470000
               31720082 31950174 31970221 31930254 31930288 32040291
               32150292 32250278 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2016
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