MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0258 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
   
   CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 
   
   VALID 100758Z - 101200Z
   
   SUMMARY...PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
   WILL RESULT IN LOCAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH/HR. A
   MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY...WITH A
   POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE BEFORE THE PRECIP WINDS
   DOWN LATER THIS MORNING.
   
   DISCUSSION...A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS SPREADING INTO NRN
   LOWER MICHIGAN AS OF 0730Z...AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED VORT
   MAX MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE WET BULB TEMPS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
   FREEZING...ADDITIONAL DIURNAL COOLING AND WEAK SFC COLD ADVECTION
   WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING AS THE PRECIP
   MOVES IN. MEANWHILE...FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A WARM LAYER
   BETWEEN 850-700 MB WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH TIME DUE TO WET-BULB
   EFFECTS. A MIXTURE OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
   INITIALLY...WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.1 INCH/HR POSSIBLE IN ANY
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO PERSIST. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
   MAY OCCUR LATER THIS MORNING AS THE COLUMN COOLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
   NRN PARTS OF THE MCD AREA...BEFORE THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN BY 12-13Z.
   
   ..DEAN.. 04/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...APX...
   
   LAT...LON   44378622 44778633 45208615 45538586 45698528 45698482
               45658426 45588372 45458329 45008297 44688301 44368332
               44188369 44258432 44328514 44398548 44388578 44378622