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Mesoscale Discussion 424
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL TX.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96...

   VALID 230712Z - 230915Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 96
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING SEWD
   ACROSS WW AREA.  BULK OF SVR THREAT WILL BE S OF MWL-CRS LINE...WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS STILL PSBL.  BARRING ANY
   SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE/COLD-POOL TRENDS TO THE CONTRARY...ADDITIONAL
   WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

   DISCUSSION...BKN BAND OF MOSTLY NON-SVR TSTMS WAS EVIDENT AT 7Z
   ACROSS COLLIN/DENTON/WISE COUNTIES THEN SWWD TO EASTLAND COUNTY. 
   ONE SVR/LEADING SUPERCELL WAS STILL EVIDENT MOVING INTO NERN ERATH
   COUNTY.  MINOR WIND DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN STEPHENS COUNTY AT 555Z
   WITH THIS STORM...AND SVR HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE AS WELL.  ALTHOUGH
   FOREGOING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO STABILIZE GRADUALLY FROM
   SFC UPWARD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIABATIC SFC COOLING...COMBINATION
   OF PRECIP LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   TO PUNCH AN OCNL STG-SVR GUST THROUGH THAT LAYER TO SFC.  THIS
   STABILIZATION...ALONG WITH EXPECTED VEERING/WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW ABOVE SFC FROM ABOUT 09Z ONWARD...INDICATE GEN LESSENING OF SVR
   POTENTIAL THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT HOURS.  PLANAR PLOT OF VWP
   WINDS AT 850 MB SHOWS CONFLUENT/SWLY/35-KT LLJ OVER THIS AREA WITH
   SRN END OF MCS CURRENTLY CROSSING CONFLUENCE AXIS...AND ALL FLOW AT
   AT THAT LEVEL VEERING WITH TIME DURING PAST HOUR.  EVEN THOUGH
   WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED...STORM-SCALE PROCESSES AND FORCED
   ASCENT OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL INFLOW TRAJECTORIES MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN
   SVR POTENTIAL ON AT LEAST ISOLATED BASIS FOR ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS.

   ..EDWARDS.. 04/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32389884 32839845 32429788 32099680 31449694 31209745
               31659822 32389884 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2015
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