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Mesoscale Discussion 424
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0401 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272101Z - 272230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS A PORTION OF NCNTRL MS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
   PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. MESOSCALE AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED
   QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NRN MS. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH
   OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS
   AND DIABATIC WARMING CONTRIBUTING TO 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. A STORM
   HAS INITIATED ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR THE NWRN MS AND ARKANSAS BORDER.
   ENEWD STORM MOTION SUGGESTS IT SHOULD CROSS INTO THE COOL SECTOR.
   HOWEVER...IF THE STORM BEGINS TO TURN MORE RIGHT IT MAY REMAIN
   SURFACE BASED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE LARGE LOW-LEVEL
   HODOGRAPHS AND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE LIKELY.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34349083 34028997 33698925 33478881 33178911 33409011
               33869096 34349083 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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