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Mesoscale Discussion 424
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN/CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 201941Z - 202145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW TSTMS MAY REACH SVR LEVELS FROM PARTS OF THE
   STOCKTON PLATEAU ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SVR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED FOR
   WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES AMIDST CONVECTIVELY RECYCLED MOISTURE AND
   INSOLATION IS SUPPORTING INCIPIENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
   CONCHO VALLEY. ADDITIONAL CUMULUS CONGESTUS OVER THE DAVIS/GLASS
   MOUNTAINS HAS GIVEN WAY TO ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE
   THAT WILL COMBINE WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR TO SUPPORT
   ISOLATED ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES DEVELOPING FROM THE
   AFOREMENTIONED ACTIVITY...AND SPREADING EWD/SEWD. SPORADIC SVR
   WIND/HAIL MAY OCCUR...THOUGH THE DEARTH OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND
   PRESENCE OF ONLY WEAK SFC BOUNDARIES SUGGEST THAT ANY SVR RISK
   SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30670235 31220163 31510008 31179891 30529903 29780099
               29840244 30670235 

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Page last modified: April 20, 2016
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