MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...MUCH OF PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 101733Z - 101930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF TSTMS WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NE OH AND INTO
   WRN PA. SOME ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES EWD...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS. ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT WILL
   LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TSTM CLUSTER OVER NE
   OH/FAR NW PA IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. A STRONG STORM
   HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL OH WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
   IN THIS AREA LIKELY. THUS FAR...UPDRAFTS HAVE HAD TROUBLE
   MAINTAINING STRENGTH...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
   INSTABILITY RESULTANT FROM GENERALLY POOR LAPSE RATES. DESPITE THIS
   MARGINAL INSTABILITY...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR HAS ALLOW SOME
   STORMS TO PERSIST. SOME STORM ORGANIZATION APPEARS TO BE ONGOING
   WITH THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE ANTICIPATED.
   PRIMARY THREAT WHILE THE LINE GETS ORGANIZED IS SOME SMALL TO
   MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND A GUSTY WINDS. ONCE THE LINE BECOMES
   ESTABLISHED...SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE AND
   SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL LIKELY FAVOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS. 
   TRENDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
   DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING BUT CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT COVERAGE
   OF ANY SVR WINDS WILL BE ISOLATED...PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.
   
   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/10/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
   
   LAT...LON   41908063 42077923 42007687 41307570 39797619 39697912
               39798212 41908063