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Mesoscale Discussion 425
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0421 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272121Z - 272315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON AN
   ISOLATED BASIS. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...GRADUALLY FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED
   INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING
   HAVE SUPPORTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRE-CONVECTIVE SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
   AMIDST DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F...MLCAPE AROUND
   2000-3500 J/KG MAY SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE UPDRAFTS. EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 30-45 KT SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORM
   SUSTENANCE/ORGANIZATION...WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL
   POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER DEEP ASCENT REMOVED WELL TO THE W
   OF THE REGION...THE OVERALL SVR TSTM COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. STORMS
   SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET OWING TO NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30019357 31469254 31919085 31389019 30629058 29969193
               30019357 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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