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Mesoscale Discussion 425
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0425
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 202154Z - 210000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE I-27 CORRIDOR ON
   A WEAKLY CONVERGENT DRYLINE. SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE RATON MESA
   SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A CLUSTER AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS
   THE TX PANHANDLE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL/WIND
   SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

   DISCUSSION...21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A DRYLINE OVER THE TX SOUTH
   PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. INCIPIENT STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
   OCCURRING NEAR LUBBOCK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK SURFACE-BASED
   BUOYANCY. WITH A PLUME OF MID TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS JUST
   TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THAT WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD THIS
   EVENING...THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL GIVEN A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. FARTHER
   NORTH...CONVECTION NEAR THE RATON MESA IS BEING AIDED BY A MID-LEVEL
   VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RECENT
   ESRL-HRRR RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH 12Z CAMS IN DEPICTING A
   CONSOLIDATING CLUSTER SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.
   WHILE BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   STRONG DEEP SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   ..GRAMS/GOSS.. 04/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35750250 36190227 36440140 36310062 35789997 34659984
               33679980 33070006 32610081 32610160 32820203 33450226
               34440177 35010185 35750250 

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