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Mesoscale Discussion 426
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0822 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 210122Z - 210245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN DEEP S TX...POSSIBLY ALONG OUTFLOW FROM
   THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN MEXICO. WEAK LOW
   LEVEL ELY FLOW BACKS TO NWLY/WLY ABOVE 3 KM PER THE 00Z KBRO
   SOUNDING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 DEG C/KM
   COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 35 KT AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE MCD AREA TO
   POSE A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DIURNAL
   COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION AFTER 03Z...LIKELY REDUCING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27529964 27729981 27819911 27729848 26829818 26249824
               26139851 26399916 27049955 27529964 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2016
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