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Mesoscale Discussion 426
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0426 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IOWA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...

   VALID 272126Z - 272230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ACROSS ERN IA TO THE NORTH
   OF WW 98. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE LOCAL EXTENSION OF
   SEVERE WATCH 98.

   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE WAS TRACKING E-NE INTO ERN IA THIS
   AFTERNOON. WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE CONTINUES TO EXIST
   IN A WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM
   FRONT...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE HAS OVERTAKEN THE WARM FRONT
   AND IS MOVING INTO A COOLER AND DRIER...MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT
   WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO WEAKER. PER RECENT COLLABORATION WITH
   WFO DVN...STRONG WINDS WERE BEING REPORTED NEAR THE APEX OF THE LINE
   ON THE EDGE OF SEVERE WATCH 98. WHILE PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT
   SEVERE WOULD PERSIST INTO THE COOLER STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE
   NORTH...A LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS E-CENTRAL AND
   NE IA IF THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO CONTINUE ADVANCING NORTHWARD WITH
   THE LINE. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO POSE A STRONG WIND AND PERHAPS
   MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
   REGIONAL 88-D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE CYCLONICALLY CURVED LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE LOCAL
   EXTENSION.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   42999233 43059165 42839092 42288989 41748995 40828994
               40359124 40639230 41869244 42549271 42999233 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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