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Mesoscale Discussion 426
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231720Z - 231915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   ACROSS SRN FL THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW INSTANCES OF GUSTY WINDS
   AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY DUE TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STALLED REMNANT
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED W-E ACROSS SRN FL FROM THE TAMPA BAY
   VICINITY TO ST. LUCIE COUNTY. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ALONG
   AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM
   SHORTLY ALONG A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS
   OF THE MCD AREA. 

   AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON AMIDST PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON AREA 12Z
   SOUNDINGS...MLCAPE HAS GENERALLY INCREASED INTO THE 500-1500 J/KG
   RANGE. RELATIVELY STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A
   SRN STREAM JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
   40-60 KT. THIS COMBINATION OF WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRONG
   BULK SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ACQUIRE OCCASIONAL
   SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...MARGINAL MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH.
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS EVIDENT ON AREA RADAR VWPS
   WILL ALSO LIKELY MINIMIZE THE TORNADO THREAT.

   ..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

   LAT...LON   26158162 27048192 28168195 28378129 28258049 26997995
               25867995 25518011 25158024 25318074 25748122 26158162 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2015
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