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Mesoscale Discussion 427
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...THE NEB PANHANDLE...AND FAR
   WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 231910Z - 232045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SERN CO AND SWRN KS WHERE LOW
   CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED DIURNAL HEATING...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO
   THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. SFC LEE
   TROUGHING EVIDENT ON LATEST MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
   SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. VISIBLE SATELLITE
   IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CUMULUS TOWERS WHICH HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. 

   MOST CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM THROUGH 20-21Z AS A LOW-LEVEL
   INVERSION PRESENT ON AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS ERODES MAINLY OWING TO
   DIURNAL HEATING. EVEN WITH RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   RETURN CHARACTERIZED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO
   UPPER 40S...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0-8.5 C/KM ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE WIND FIELD BELOW 500 MB
   REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...GENERALLY 25KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...STRONGER
   FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SRN STREAM JET SHOULD ALLOW
   STORMS TO EVENTUALLY ORGANIZE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
   THE MCD AREA. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THE
   STRONGER CORES THAT FORM...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL
   GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT. THE TORNADO THREAT
   CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
   PARTICULARLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS SERN CO/WRN KS
   WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT AND A STRONGER
   FORECAST WIND PROFILE MAY DEVELOP.

   ..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/23/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   37650236 37140254 37160351 38050396 41010404 41530402
               41950376 41860287 41310217 40240188 38240192 37650236 

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Page last modified: April 23, 2015
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