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Mesoscale Discussion 427
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR...ERN OK...NERN TX...NRN LA

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 100...97...

   VALID 272152Z - 272245Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 100...97...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS INCREASING IN
   CNTRL/W-CNTRL/SWRN ARKANSAS. THE TORNADO RISK CONTINUES ELSEWHERE
   ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 97 AND 100.

   DISCUSSION...SEMI-DISCRETE/DISCRETE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING WITHIN
   A PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CONFLUENCE CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER
   60S-AROUND 70F SFC DEWPOINTS FROM SW TO W-CNTRL ARKANSAS. STORMS
   WILL LIKELY MATURE WITHIN THIS ZONE AND CONTINUE TO ATTAIN
   SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS GIVEN 50-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR. WITH THE 21Z SPECIAL SOUNDING FROM LZK INDICATING LARGE
   STREAMWISE VORTICITY FOR SFC-LAYER INFLOW...SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH
   AROUND 600 M2/S2...THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES IS INCREASING.
   THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE WITH CONVECTION THAT INTERACTS
   WITH A WARM FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY DRAPED NW/SE ACROSS ARKANSAS
   WHERE SFC WINDS ARE MORE BACKED. ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOPED
   ALONG A PACIFIC FRONT FARTHER W ACROSS ERN OK WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
   EWD AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE ATTENDANT
   TORNADO THREAT INCREASING INTO FAR ERN OK AND WRN AR IN THE
   SHORT-TERM.

   ..COHEN.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36189508 36449159 35509107 34579118 33489169 32669260
               32589382 32979492 34089527 36189508 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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