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Mesoscale Discussion 428
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...W-CENTRAL AND SW MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...

   VALID 272157Z - 272300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY BE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
   EXTREME SE KS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MO WHERE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER BEHIND EARLIER CONVECTION. WW 95 IS SET
   TO EXPIRE AT 00Z AND A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE THREAT WILL EXTEND BEYOND THE CURRENT
   EXPIRATION TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A DRYLINE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS ERN KS SWD INTO
   ERN OK. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS W-CENTRAL AND SW
   MO...SKIES HAD CLEARED AND TEMPERATURES WERE WARMING BACK INTO THE
   UPPER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. FURTHER EAST TOWARD SGF AND
   S-CENTRAL MO...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER WERE LIMITING
   INSTABILITY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINED COOL WITH TEMPERATURES IN
   THE 60S. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
   E/NE WITH ENSUING RECOVERY EXPECTED TO EXPAND EWD WITH TIME LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON. SBCAPE WAS APPROACHING 2000 J/KG NEAR JLN WITH
   STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVERSPREADING THE REGION AS MID LEVEL SPEED
   MAX IMPINGES ON THE REGION. REGIONAL 88-D VAD WIND PROFILES
   INDICATED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS
   AND 0-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 300 M2/S2. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE MOVING E/NE INTO THE
   RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SW MO. GIVEN LOW LEVEL
   THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS...TORNADOES /POSSIBLY ONE OR
   TWO STRONG/ WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THIS THREAT WILL EXTEND BEYOND 00Z
   WHEN CURRENT TORNADO WATCH 95 EXPIRES AND A NEW WATCH WILL NEED TO
   BE COORDINATED WITH WFO/S SGF AND EAX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...
   ICT...

   LAT...LON   39519501 40599372 40589250 39969250 38779260 38499206
               38049140 37839137 36699111 36499115 36469273 36509510
               39519501 

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Page last modified: April 27, 2014
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