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Mesoscale Discussion 428
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0428
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...BIG COUNTRY OF NORTHWEST TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99...

   VALID 210435Z - 210530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 99
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...A RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT
   LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS A CONFINED PORTION OF THE BIG COUNTRY.
   OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR AN ADDITIONAL
   DOWNSTREAM WW...BUT ANOTHER LOCAL EXTENSION BY WFO SJT IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW HAS SURGED AROUND 20 MILES AHEAD OF
   THE ELEVATED CLUSTER CENTERED ON THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE LUB CWA.
   NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CORES PERSIST BEHIND THE
   OUTFLOW WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING UPSHEAR NEAR LUBBOCK.
   PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF
   HAIL SIZE...BUT 40-45 KT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES BENEATH 35-40 KT
   MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES /PER AREA VWP DATA/ WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   SPORADIC OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL. CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST
   ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
   GRADIENT TOWARDS THE ABILENE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 07Z...AND GRADUALLY
   WEAKEN IN OVERALL INTENSITY LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE LLJ BEGINS
   TO SUBSIDE/VEER.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   33610002 33309949 32889910 32519900 32319943 32380029
               32490082 32800156 33430201 33720185 33640117 33590057
               33610002 

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