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Mesoscale Discussion 429
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0934 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF W AND S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240234Z - 240330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE IS SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR/W OF THE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY...AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM W
   TO S TX LATE THIS EVENING. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
   WW.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR/LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTION OCCURRING...WITH TWO ROBUST AREAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE
   VALLEY...INCLUDING /1/...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL MOVING ACROSS VAL
   VERDE COUNTY...AND /2/...A NWD MOVING CLUSTER OF STORMS
   APPROXIMATELY 80 S OF LRD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
   BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OVER NERN MX.

   WHILE THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IN THE SHORT-TERM IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR
   GIVEN NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE ENVIRONMENT AS SAMPLED BY
   THE 00Z DRT SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 50-70 KT OF
   MIDLEVEL SWLYS. RICH MOISTURE /70S DEWPOINTS F/ ACROSS S TX IS BEING
   REINFORCED BY WEAK ELYS AT THE SFC...WITH MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000
   J/KG ESTIMATED S OF DRT. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR...WITH FAVORED MODES INITIALLY
   BEING ISOLATED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR A COUPLE CLUSTERS. THE PRIMARY
   THREATS WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...WITH THE
   TORNADO THREAT LIMITED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
   BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/THOMPSON.. 04/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   29780170 30210162 30200000 29839917 26879854 26309862
               26359884 26759922 27109954 27589957 27739982 28360041
               29080073 29670142 29780170 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2015
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