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Mesoscale Discussion 429
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 210616Z - 210745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   MAY BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 99 TO ACCOUNT FOR A LEAST A
   SHORT-TERM THREAT EARLY THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF ELEVATED SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS MOVING
   SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
   HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COUPLED
   WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
   MAINTAIN THESE CELLS ALONG THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LINE.
   HERE...OUTFLOW HAS NOT SURGED AHEAD OF THE LINE AS IT HAS FURTHER
   EAST...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS. A NEW WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 99 ACROSS PARTS OF THE MAF AND SJT FORECAST
   AREAS.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   32049901 31859929 31689968 31740042 31780116 31940178
               32220232 32670269 33200278 33330261 33380150 33220099
               33210019 33329938 33229892 32819878 32409890 32049901 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2016
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