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Mesoscale Discussion 430
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0457 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...

   VALID 210957Z - 211130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR OR
   TWO ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL TX. A NEW WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED
   AT THIS TIME DOWNSTREAM OF WW 100.

   DISCUSSION...EARLIER LINE OF MARGINAL TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS
   DIMINISHED EXCEPT FOR A BOWING SEGMENT MOVING INTO RUNNELS COUNTY IN
   WEST-CENTRAL TX. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING INTO AN AREA WHERE
   OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS LIKELY FURTHER STABILIZED LOW LEVELS
   AND RESULTED IN NORTH TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
   FURTHERMORE...LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS OUTFLOW FROM THE CURRENT
   BOW IS STARTING TO SURGE EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD. MRMS MESH CONTINUES TO
   INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE. STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS WITH EASTWARD
   EXTENT...WHERE INHIBITION ALSO INCREASES. AS SUCH...A WEAKENING
   TREND IS EXPECTED. WHILE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST
   ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...A NEW WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
   DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100.

   ..LEITMAN.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32009926 31739918 31499924 31319944 31289972 31300031
               31370076 31550094 31830095 32040058 32260041 32410021
               32379972 32009926 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2016
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