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Mesoscale Discussion 430
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 240736Z - 240900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY MAY POSE MOSTLY A LARGE HAIL AND
   POSSIBLY SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
   RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLY ADDITIONAL PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TX
   OVERNIGHT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...A SUPERCELL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
   RIVER INTO SOUTHERN MAVERICK COUNTY TX. THE REGION APPEARS TO BE AT
   LEAST SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS VIA AN UPSTREAM
   TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX IS VERY MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN
   THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
   VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. ACCENTUATED BY LIGHT
   EASTERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...STRONG DEEP-LAYER/LOW-LEVEL
   SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL ALONG
   WITH SOME TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK.

   ..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   28620046 29029957 28309844 27449949 28620046 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2015
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