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Mesoscale Discussion 430
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0610 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 272310Z - 280045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS...SOME WITH A HISTORY OF
   PRODUCING TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE ACROSS SW MO. A
   NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   ONGOING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
   TORNADOES NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE. THE AXIS OF GREATEST TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SEWD TO
   JUST EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MO. HERE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THE 88-D VAD
   WIND PROFILE FROM KSFG SHOWED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A FAVORABLE
   CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPH WITH O-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 400 M2/S2.


   FURTHER E TOWARD CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL MO THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
   NOT BE ZERO BUT WILL DECLINE DUE AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEAD TO A
   COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTION
   MAY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...

   LAT...LON   38769505 39149510 39219492 39239456 38869341 38389251
               37889196 37049183 36519169 36449230 36449311 36489507
               38769505 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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