|
| Mesoscale Discussion 431 |
|
< Previous MD
Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0126 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / W-CNTRL KY / SRN IN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...
VALID 101826Z - 101930Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS
OF SRN IL / SRN IN / AND W-CNTRL KY. INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIKELY IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY /I-75
CORRIDOR/ AS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM TN.
COMPLEX SURFACE SETUP EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY
AS LOW NEAR THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE TRACKS EWD AS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT MOVES E WITH W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE OH
RIVER. RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC SHOW INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS OVER CNTRL KY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. HOWEVER...DISCRETE
STORMS FURTHER W /ESPECIALLY POTENTIALLY TORNADIC HP-SUPERCELL OVER
MUHLENBERG COUNTY/ WILL CROSS MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT
HR PERHAPS MAINTAINING ISOLD TORNADIC POTENTIAL. UPDRAFTS THAT CAN
BE SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF LOW ALONG OH RIVER
CORRIDOR MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
/BELOW 20 KTS/ PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MAY LIMIT TORNADO THREAT.
FARTHER E OVER E-CNTRL KY...ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A HAIL
THREAT WITH STRONGER CORES LOCATED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION WING. AN
INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL
KY NEAR I-75 APPEARS PROBABLE THE NEXT HR OR TWO. A NEW WW MAY BE
REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 131.
..SMITH.. 04/10/2009
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...
LAT...LON 36748330 36628520 36668674 37018761 37608900 38138815
38708589 38498370 38088272 37418260 36948301 36748330
|
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|