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Mesoscale Discussion 431
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0940 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211440Z - 211645Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OVER SERN TX THIS MORNING. OVERALL
   THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR NACOGDOCHES IN SERN TX SWWD
   TO NEAR GONZALES. THE LINE IS MOVING SEWD AT AROUND 30-35 KT AND
   WILL MERGE WITH THE NWRN PORTION OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO SERN TX NEAR PASADENA. VERTICAL
   SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY MERGERS WILL PROMOTE SOME
   INTENSIFICATION OF THE MULTICELL LINE AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH SERN
   TX.

   ..DIAL/GUYER.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29469570 30179495 31079417 30169385 29449475 29069527
               28949568 29089589 29469570 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2016
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