MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0126 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN IL / W-CNTRL KY / SRN IN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 131...
   
   VALID 101826Z - 101930Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 131 CONTINUES.
   
   SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS
   OF SRN IL / SRN IN / AND W-CNTRL KY.  INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
   LIKELY IN THE NEXT HR OR TWO OVER PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KY /I-75
   CORRIDOR/ AS POTENTIALLY TORNADIC STORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM TN.
   
   COMPLEX SURFACE SETUP EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY
   AS LOW NEAR THE MS/OH RIVER CONFLUENCE TRACKS EWD AS ATTENDANT COLD
   FRONT MOVES E WITH W-E ORIENTED WARM FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE OH
   RIVER.  RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR MOSAIC SHOW INITIAL BROKEN LINE OF
   STORMS OVER CNTRL KY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  HOWEVER...DISCRETE
   STORMS FURTHER W /ESPECIALLY POTENTIALLY TORNADIC HP-SUPERCELL OVER
   MUHLENBERG COUNTY/ WILL CROSS MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS WITHIN THE NEXT
   HR PERHAPS MAINTAINING ISOLD TORNADIC POTENTIAL.  UPDRAFTS THAT CAN
   BE SUSTAIN THEMSELVES IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF LOW ALONG OH RIVER
   CORRIDOR MAY POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   /BELOW 20 KTS/ PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS MAY LIMIT TORNADO THREAT.
   
   FARTHER E OVER E-CNTRL KY...ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY POSE A HAIL
   THREAT WITH STRONGER CORES LOCATED WITHIN WARM ADVECTION WING.  AN
   INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT ACROSS THE SRN TIER COUNTIES OF S-CNTRL
   KY NEAR I-75 APPEARS PROBABLE THE NEXT HR OR TWO.  A NEW WW MAY BE
   REQUIRED DOWNSTREAM OF WW 131.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/10/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...
   
   LAT...LON   36748330 36628520 36668674 37018761 37608900 38138815
               38708589 38498370 38088272 37418260 36948301 36748330