MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS PA...OH...NRN WV PANHANDLE.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 88...91...
   
   VALID 110028Z - 110230Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   88...91...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...WW 88 HAS BEEN REPLACED W OF INDIANA/OH BORDER BY WW 93. 
   OH PORTIONS OF WW 88 THAT ARE NOT ALREADY CLEARED MAY BE ALLOWED TO
   EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 01Z DUE TO DIMINISHING SVR THREAT.  WWS 88
   AND 91 MAY BE CLEARED BEHIND PRIMARY TSTM COMPLEXES NOW OVER CENTRAL
   PA AND ERN OH RESPECTIVELY...EACH OF WHICH STILL POSES THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WIND WHILE MOVING ESEWD 45-50 KT.
   
   DISCUSSION...SFC 00Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   AS FOLLOWS...
   
   1. FROM SMALL TSTM CLUSTER NOW OVER SERN PA -- EXTENDS WNWWD ACROSS
   LANCASTER/HUNTINGDON COUNTIES PA...WHERE IT IS BEING OVERTAKEN BY
   SECOND MCS.  EARLIER COMPLEX NOW OVER LONG ISLAND REINFORCED COLD
   POOL N OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND THETAE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY WITHIN
   50-60 NM TO ITS N.  SFC MOIST AXIS INTERSECTS THIS BOUNDARY NEAR MDT
   AND EXTENDS SWD OVER DC AREA...CONTRIBUTING TO NARROW/MRGL PLUME OF
   SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS WITH 250-700 J/KG MLCAPE THAT MAY
   SUPPORT LEADING MCS INTO SERN PA BEFORE IT WEAKENS.  UNV GUSTED TO
   58 KT AND CTP WFO MEASURED ROOFTOP GUSTS TO 56 KT.  ACTIVITY SHOULD
   REMAIN CAPABLE OF SPOTTY SVR GUSTS AS IT MOVES THROUGH REMAINDER
   CENTRAL PA AND PORTIONS SERN PA...ESPECIALLY ALONG W-FACING AND
   HIGHER TERRAIN THAT IS MORE EXPOSED.
   
   2. FROM CENTRAL PA COMPLEX ACROSS SOMERSET/GREENE COUNTIES
   PA...INTERSECTING ERN OH MCS OVER GUERNSEY COUNTY.  ALTHOUGH BULK OF
   THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAIN N OF BOUNDARY...OCNL DAMAGING GUSTS WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WITHIN 30-40 NM TO ITS N
   WHERE ANTECEDENT COLD POOL IS SHALLOWEST.
   
   3. FROM ERN OH MCS ACROSS PICKAWAY/GREENE/PREBLE COUNTIES
   OH...MOVING SWD 15-20 KT AND DECELERATING.  BULK OF CENTRAL/WRN OH
   CONVECTION NEXT 2-3 HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED N OF THIS
   BOUNDARY IN PATCHY FORM...AND SUPPORTED BY SWLY/30-KT LLJ THAT IS
   SUPPORTING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO LFC ATOP COLD POOL.  ISOLATED LARGE
   HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT SVR POTENTIAL IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE
   MRGL THAN WITH MCS ACTIVITY FARTHER E.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/11/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...
   
   LAT...LON   39468480 40948473 41218186 40958002 41207767 40847619
               40337505 39757603 39717989 39378204 39468480