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Mesoscale Discussion 433
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1112 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF TX FROM THE CONCHO VALLEY/BIG COUNTRY INTO
   CENTRAL AND N TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241612Z - 241815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
   BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS....ALONG AND S
   OF THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND OVER NRN TX.  WW WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ATTM ACROSS TX --
   PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE DETAILS...AS WIDESPREAD
   CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN A BAND FROM NEAR MAF ENEWD ACROSS N TX
   AND INTO AR.  THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL
   CONTINUE TO LOCALLY HINDER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION..BUT CLEARING IS
   EVIDENT ATTM ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPORTING GRADUAL
   DESTABILIZATION OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
   TX.

   RADAR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS ELEVATED STORMS NOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
   CONTINUE TO FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX/CIRCULATION CENTER
   SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM ATTM PER LATEST WV IMAGERY.  AS THIS
   LARGE-SCALE BACKGROUND ASCENT SPREADS EWD ATOP A GRADUALLY
   DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT STORMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ROOTED IN THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH TIME.  

   WITH 60 TO 70 KT SWLY FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE NM VORT MAX CONTINUING
   TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT VERY
   SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL RAMP-UP IN
   SEVERE RISK AS STORMS BECOME SURFACE-BASED.  A MIXED CONVECTIVE MODE
   IS EXPECTED...WITH LIKELY TENDENCY FOR SUPERCELLS TO IN SOME AREAS
   GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS.  THUS...LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES
   WHERE CELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED. 

   THOUGH TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SEVERE RISK IS STILL A BIT
   UNCERTAIN...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF STILL-ELEVATED
   CONVECTION WITH AN EYE TOWARD EXPECTED WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS.

   ..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31300105 31960110 33050017 33939698 33929603 33089545
               31899594 31399791 31170005 31300105 

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