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Mesoscale Discussion 433
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0433
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211914Z - 212115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER A PORTION
   OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AND POSE A
   MODEST THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KINGSVILLE TO LAREDO MOVING SWD. THE SEABREEZE
   HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS LOCATED FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TO JUST WEST
   OF CORPUS CHRISTI WHERE AN ISOLATED STORM WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING SWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY...PARTICULARLY WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
   MAXIMIZED AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE SEABREEZE.
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS
   AND SOME HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..DIAL/GUYER.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27199761 26429739 25959732 26089791 26279822 26869848
               27109808 27199761 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2016
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