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Mesoscale Discussion 434
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0703 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH MISSISSIPPI

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 101...

   VALID 280003Z - 280130Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 101 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH
   101.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WHICH
   DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN MS IS
   ADVANCING NNE OF THIS FRONT -- I.E. INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS. WHILE THIS MAY REDUCE THE TORNADO
   POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT...STRONG BUOYANCY ROOTED ATOP THIS STABLE
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
   45-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. HOWEVER...SOME TORNADO RISK WILL
   REMAIN JUST N OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT
   ENTIRELY DECOUPLED...GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE
   MEMPHIS VWP.

   ..COHEN.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34889057 34578819 33588821 33869057 34889057 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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