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Mesoscale Discussion 434
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 211936Z - 212200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...VERY ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
   WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS
   INDICATE ISOLATED DEVELOPING CONVECTION WITHIN MULTIPLE REGIMES...
   /1/ DIURNAL-HEATING-INVIGORATED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS AMIDST
   BACKGROUND UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND THE TX BIG BEND...
   /2/ WEAK-CONVERGENCE ZONES MOVING SWD INTO RECYCLED MOISTURE
   FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S SUBJECTED TO
   INSOLATION/SFC HEATING...AND
   /3/ A SEGMENT OF DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

   CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING WILL ALLOW MLCINH TO ERODE...WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DEEPENING OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
   REGIMES. REFLECTIVITY RETURNS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING IN ECTOR AND
   BREWSTER COUNTIES...AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE...COMBINED WITH 30-45 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A VERY ISOLATED SVR HAIL/WIND
   RISK WITH MORE ORGANIZED TSTM STRUCTURES. HOWEVER...WEAK SFC
   CONVERGENCE AND THE LACK OF SALIENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS
   FACILITATING DEEP/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...SHOULD GREATLY MINIMIZE ANY
   SVR COVERAGE.

   ..COHEN/GUYER.. 04/21/2016


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29050309 29740358 30810341 31390243 31140134 30380036
               29660013 29290080 29650146 29560248 29050309 

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Page last modified: April 21, 2016
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