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Mesoscale Discussion 434
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN TX/SRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 241653Z - 241830Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...GRADUALLY INCREASING STORMS/SEVERE RISK EVIDENT ACROSS THE
   SABINE RIVER VALLEY REGION AND EWD ACROSS SRN LA MAY REQUIRE WW
   ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE TYR /TYLER TX/ VICINITY AND
   APPROACHING THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
   INCREASE...AS MIXED-LAYER CAPE ACROSS THE GULF COAST HAS INCREASED
   INTO THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE.  SOME ORGANIZATION IS INDICATED
   WITHIN THIS CLUSTER ATTM...AIDED BY FAVORABLY STRONG MID-LEVEL SWLYS
   ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS A BIT WEAK...SELY
   SURFACE WINDS NEAR/N OF THE REMNANT FRONT LYING W-E ROUGHLY ALONG
   THE GULF COAST MAY SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN ISOLATED TORNADO RISK
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE
   LOCALLY AS CONVECTION GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES...WW MAY BE NEEDED IN
   THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   ..GOSS/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   29659387 29609444 30079470 30469443 30729407 31029321
               30559196 30309094 29179114 29659387 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2015
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