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Mesoscale Discussion 435
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0928 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...AND SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 240228Z - 240400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
   WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...02Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
   ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA CONSOLIDATES
   ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL CO ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THEY SHOULD
   CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 40-50 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   THIS CONVECTION IS ENTERING A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR
   ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB...WHERE MLCAPE RANGES FROM 250-500 J/KG PER
   RAP MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN FAST STORM MOTIONS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL
   WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
   ROCKIES...GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH ABOUT 04Z GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. CONTINUED
   DIURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING MLCIN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY
   RESULT IN THESE STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
   WIND THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A
   VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
   40-50 KT ALLOWING FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.

   ..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38750275 39490276 40260236 40460180 40460103 40260058
               39250047 38270082 37960212 37950311 38750275 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2016
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