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Mesoscale Discussion 435
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN N
   TX... AND SWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 241756Z - 241930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST MAY
   POSE SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
   WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

   DISCUSSION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED
   MAXIMUM...SHALLOW LINEAR CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG AN
   EWD MIXING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
   IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THIS QUICKLY MOVING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
   IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...WITH MUCAPE ESTIMATED AROUND 500 J/KG FROM
   THE LATEST RAP MESOANALYSIS. THERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
   THE PROMOTION OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT TO THE SFC VIA CONVECTIVE
   MIXING/DOWNDRAFTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SWRN OK/FAR WRN N TX.
   IF THIS LINE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO S-CNTRL OK...IT WOULD
   ENCOUNTER A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT GIVEN PRIOR
   CONVECTION THAT HAS LARGELY STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH ONLY
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS EXPECTED...A WW IS
   UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.

   ..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33500127 33900138 34560088 35170019 35469945 35469883
               35019871 34189951 33550039 33500127 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2015
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