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Mesoscale Discussion 436
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...ERN NEB...WRN IA...FAR NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241831Z - 242030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
   MID-AFTERNOON...WITH ACCOMPANYING PRIMARY THREATS OF DMGG WIND GUSTS
   AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A WELL-DEFINED
   MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR THE NEB/WY BORDER IS SPREADING E
   TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSTM INITIATION WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS
   ALONG A SFC DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO THE SYNOPTIC SFC LOW OVER CNTRL SD.
   ISOLATED ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR/N OF I-80 IN
   E-CNTRL NEB...AND THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST AND
   GRADUALLY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING NEWD.

   A LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY INITIAL DISCRETE STORM STRUCTURES
   THAT DEVELOP...BUT THE MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
   FORCING AND SFC DRYLINE SUGGEST STORM MERGERS/INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD
   TO AN EVENTUAL EVOLUTION TO A FEW CLUSTERS AND/OR QUASI-LINEAR MODE
   BY THIS EVENING...SUGGESTING AN INCREASING DMGG WIND THREAT. THE
   TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   /MID-UPPER 50S F SFC DEWPOINTS/ AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER
   WIND PROFILES...BUT MAY STILL BE NON-ZERO WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.

   ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   44299479 41809479 40839494 40019543 40049681 40029798
               40039849 41219845 42519823 44849877 45079723 44819554
               44299479 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2016
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