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Mesoscale Discussion 436
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...WRN TN...SERN MO...FAR SRN
   IL...FAR WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 280029Z - 280200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
   EVENING...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL/NRN AR WILL
   CONTINUE TRACKING ENEWD TO THE NE OF A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
   ACROSS CNTRL AR. HOWEVER...2-HRLY PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB NE OF
   THIS BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE AN ISALLOBARIC WIND TO PROMOTE ITS NEWD
   ADVANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E -- E.G. SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S -- TO EXTEND NEWD TO THE
   MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR SVR
   HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. LONG/CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AMIDST STRONG
   DEEP-SHEAR PER VWP DATA WILL SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36829097 37279014 36978891 35368883 34988971 35199093
               36829097 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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