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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0914 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST AR/FAR EAST TX TO NORTHERN/CENTRAL LA
AND WESTERN MS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 92...
VALID 110214Z - 110415Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 92 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 92 CONTINUES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
AR/NORTHEAST LA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN MS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
A TORNADO REMAINING POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS...MAINLY IN FAR
NORTHERN/WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
/THROUGH 04Z/. ADDITIONALLY...SOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TSTM WIND
GUST WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA THIS
EVENING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...PRIMARY SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE SHORT TERM /THROUGH
03Z-04Z/ WILL BE FROM FAR SOUTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A QLCS...IN FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TORNADO WATCH
92. OTHERWISE...THE POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...GIVEN A
SLIGHT/GRADUAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE 70S F WITH
A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN CINH.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST...CONVECTION WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN FOCUSED
ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
EXTREME EASTERN TX AND LA. A PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED/CONSEQUENTIAL
SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME HAIL/PERHAPS A WIND GUST
MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SUCH DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAY BE ACCENTUATED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BY THE EVENTUAL APPROACH A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH/JET STREAK CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO TX.
..GUYER.. 04/11/2013
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...
LAT...LON 33149234 33859157 33669006 33149007 31519120 29699415
32309355 33149234
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