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Mesoscale Discussion 437
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0150 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS INTO NWRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241850Z - 242115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY DURING
   THE 20-22Z PERIOD OVER KS AND ISOLATED CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS
   PROBABLE DURING THE 22-01Z PERIOD FROM THE KS-OK BORDER REGION SWD
   INTO OK.  LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS.  A MODEST WEAK-TORNADO RISK
   WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EARLY EVENING /23-02Z/ WHEN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   STRENGTHENS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS LOWER.

   DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SHARPENING
   DRYLINE/CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM 25 MI W RSL SWD ALONG THE
   TX-OK BORDER.  DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 59-62 DEG F RANGE
   DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN W-CNTRL OK PER OK MESONET OBSERVATIONS.
   STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH GRADUAL MOISTENING ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE BUOYANCY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
   MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
   LARGER-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS W-CNTRL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL AND ERN PORTIONS OF KS/S-CNTRL NEB BY
   LATE AFTERNOON.  THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FEATURE AND IMPLIED
   WEAK ASCENT WILL SPREAD ACROSS NWRN OK DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IMPLY THE SPC
   RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSES ARE SUFFERING FROM THE RAP OVER-MIXING
   DRY BIAS YIELDING AN UNDER-REPRESENTATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. 
   WRF-BASED GUIDANCE /PARTICULARLY THE NAM/ APPEARS TO EXHIBIT A MORE
   REASONABLE SOLUTION REGARDING MOISTURE/MIXING AND SUBSEQUENT CAP
   EROSION AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION PROCESSES.  

   CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FIRST ACROSS CNTRL KS ALONG
   THE DRYLINE AND GRADUALLY INCLUDE AREAS FARTHER S ALONG THE KS/OK
   BORDER BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NWRN OK DURING THE EARLY
   EVENING HOURS.  DEEP SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ORTHOGONAL TO THE
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40-50
   KT WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE WITH THE STRONGER/SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. SRH/ RISES INTO THE 100-250 M2/S2
   RANGE DURING THE 23-02Z PERIOD AND WILL GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH SOME
   WEAK TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH ANY STRONGER/SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. 
   STRENGTHENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AFTER 01-02Z WILL TEND TO
   RESTRICT STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS MOST OF THE
   ACTIVITY DIMINISHES.

   ..SMITH/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36219954 39369873 39799813 39829708 39409668 35889771
               35739814 35739923 36219954 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2016
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