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Mesoscale Discussion 437
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0214 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 241914Z - 242045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND
   CENTRAL KS THROUGH 21Z. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
   TORNADOES ALL APPEAR POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANY REMAINING CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION EVIDENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DODGE CITY SHOULD BE
   LARGELY REMOVED. BROAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   MOVING NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE INITIAL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE/SWRN KS AND
   EVENTUALLY EXTENDING INTO CNTRL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON.

   SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS SWRN KS TO LOWER 60S
   FOR S-CNTRL KS ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM
   ARE PROMOTING MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG. A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH
   HEIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG SWLY FLOW AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
   SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES
   WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. A SUB-998 MB SFC LOW
   ANALYZED OVER SERN CO/SWRN KS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD ACROSS WRN KS
   THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS CNTRL KS SHOULD
   BACK SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC LOW. THIS MAY
   ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND
   INCREASE THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME.

   ..GLEASON/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39549937 39459847 39369809 39189779 38669795 37889831
               37539843 37239859 37079933 37209977 37819998 38320050
               38670128 38970189 39340172 39430118 39510000 39549937 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2015
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