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Mesoscale Discussion 437
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0437
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 97...

   VALID 280109Z - 280215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 97 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 97 COVERING PARTS OF NERN
   TX...NRN LA...AND SRN AR MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME BEYOND ITS
   SCHEDULED 02Z EXPIRATION TIME.

   DISCUSSION...AN ONGOING SUPERCELL STORM IN FAR NERN TX WILL CONTINUE
   TO ADVANCE EWD...WITH THE DOWNSTREAM 00Z SHV RAOB INDICATING MLCAPE
   AROUND 2200 J/KG AND AROUND 45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS WILL
   MAINTAIN SEVERE RISK...WHILE STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
   AND ASSOCIATED FORCED-ASCENT-INDUCED MID-LEVEL COOLING POTENTIALLY
   OFFSET THE GROWTH OF SUBSTANTIAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
   THIS ASCENT MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL
   CONVECTION THIS EVENING. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL YIELD A
   TORNADO RISK AS WELL...AND THESE FACTORS MAY WARRANT LOCAL EXTENSION
   OF THE TORNADO WATCH IN TIME FROM PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX EASTWARD.

   ..COHEN.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32539445 32729504 33329495 33459406 33229231 32709223
               32569283 32539445 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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