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Mesoscale Discussion 438
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX / NRN LA / FAR SRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 242058Z - 242230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING.  ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AND A WATCH
   WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   STORMS OVER NERN TX INTO NWRN LA INVOF A WARM FRONT-OUTFLOW
   COMPOSITE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR. 
   THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING WAA
   REGIME OCCURRING ALONG A LLJ WHICH WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY TO 40-50
   KT IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION.

   WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE GENERALLY POOR...THE PRESENCE OF A MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT COUPLED WITH
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
   MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

   ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 04/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31989517 32399537 32659532 33349480 33479399 33329267
               33079167 32619126 32179136 31699189 31499299 30449523
               30819638 31989517 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2015
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