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Mesoscale Discussion 438
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0438
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0445 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL AND DEEP S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242145Z - 242345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS
   WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY DUE
   TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST MOVING NEWD WITH TIME.
   CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG/NEAR THE COAST OF S-CNTRL
   INTO DEEP S TX ON THE SUBSIDENT/W SIDE OF THIS TROUGH IN A WEAK TO
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SELY SFC WINDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA VEER
   WITH HEIGHT TO NWLY AROUND 8-9 KM AGL PER RECENT KCRP VWP. WHILE
   WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC PROFILE ARE NOT OVERLY
   STRONG...GENERALLY 40 KT OR LESS...SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   VALUES OF GENERALLY 30-40 KT OWING MAINLY TO THE STRONGLY VEERING
   PROFILE WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD
   THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. FINALLY...A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO MIGHT
   BE POSSIBLE WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 130-180 M2/S2 PER KCRP/KBRO
   VWPS...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS RELATIVELY
   MODEST.

   ..GLEASON/GOSS.. 04/24/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28459642 28799685 28879782 28269831 26949842 25929813
               25779736 25919698 26899717 27789684 28209643 28459642 

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Page last modified: April 24, 2016
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