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Mesoscale Discussion 440
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...FAR
   NORTHEAST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 280259Z - 280430Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 0400Z.

   DISCUSSION...WITH MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR CONTINUING TO
   RESIDE OVER THE AREA -- TO THE E OF A SYNOPTIC STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   AND INTERSECTING DRYLINE -- AND WITH A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX PIVOTING
   THROUGH THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF A DEEP CNTRL-CONUS CYCLONE PER WATER
   VAPOR IMAGERY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. A QLCS FROM NEAR FORT SMITH AR TO
   MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK MAY BE THE MANIFESTATION OF THE STRONGER DEEP
   ASCENT OVERTAKING THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR...AND
   THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A SVR RISK AS IT ENTERS/CROSSES
   AR. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
   AND TO ITS S...WHILE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS SPREAD NEWD IN THE WAKE OF
   A RETREATING WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL/NRN AR. MLCAPE AROUND
   1000-2000 J/KG AMIDST 45-65 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
   PERSISTENT/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL CONTINUE TO
   MAINTAIN A RISK FOR TORNADOES.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34979451 35899387 36079223 35389140 33909169 33119264
               32969395 33489464 34979451 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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