|Mesoscale Discussion 441|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Thu May 17 2018
Areas affected...Texas South Plains and Panhandle into southwest
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 171938Z - 172145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms will develop across much of the High Plains over
the next several hours, with severe hail and wind expected.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows strong heating across the
southern High Plains with temperatures over 90 F from eastern NM
into west TX. Meanwhile, an axis of low 60s F dewpoints extends from
northwest TX across southwest OK and into the TX and OK Panhandles.
East of there, relatively cooler air exists across northwest OK in
association with ongoing convection and clouds.
Visible imagery shows towering CU along the NM/TX border, as well as
across southeastern CO. These will be favored areas for development
as heating persists. Steep lapse rates aloft are supporting moderate
instability, though the boundary layer is becoming deep and well
mixed. Storm mode is likely to vary from initially cellular to
forward propagating/outflow dominated. Veering winds with height may
support a few supercells capable of very large hail, especially in
close proximity to the low-level moist axis. Otherwise, damaging
winds are likely with any lines or bowing storms.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33500257 34830261 38000281 38750234 38850160 38410078
37900044 36289990 34249954 33819940 33379959 33049997
32580092 32580210 33000248 33500257
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