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Mesoscale Discussion 442
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL WI...NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 251840Z - 252045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL WI
   AND NRN IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE STORMS INCREASING INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
   MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WW
   ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1000 MB LOW OVER SE MN WITH
   A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM NE MO INTO NW IL AND
   SRN WI. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE SFC
   LOW EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS SCNTRL WI. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH
   OF THE BOUNDARY RANGE FROM 55 TO 60 F AND SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO
   THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
   ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS TO BE 500 TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS NW IL
   WITH LESS INSTABILITY ACROSS SCNTRL WI. INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
   ENHANCED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SCNTRL WI. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
   CELLS DEVELOPING SSWWD INTO NW IL THIS AFTERNOON.

   THE LATEST WSR-88D VWPS IN SCNTRL WI AND NW IL SUGGEST MODERATE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED NEAR 40 KT.
   THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH ROTATING CELLS
   LIKELY. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN NW IL ON
   THE NERN EDGE OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HAILSTONES
   OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS CELLS
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONGEAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A LINE OF
   STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD TO LAKE MICHIGAN BY EARLY
   THIS EVENING. A 700 MB JET CURRENTLY IN NE IA WILL HELP WITH LINEAR
   ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLY BOWING STRUCTURES. ANY BOWING LINE SEGMENT
   SHOULD HAVE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A BRIEF TORNADO
   ALSO POSSIBLE.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

   LAT...LON   41388834 41438965 41889019 42609002 43498983 43748976
               44068948 44248889 44248810 43978709 42918627 41728675
               41388834 

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