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Mesoscale Discussion 442
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0442
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO AND AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 102...104...

   VALID 280421Z - 280545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 102...104...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CONTINUES
   ACROSS TORNADO WATCHES 102 AND 104.

   DISCUSSION...A SQUALL LINE IS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM WRN AR INTO SWRN
   MO AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING A VORT MAX IS OVERSPREADING A
   NEWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR. THE SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING
   EWD...WITH DOWNSTREAM MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP
   SHEAR SUPPORTING DMGG WINDS/LARGE HAIL. ALSO...WITH THE LZK VWP
   INDICATING A LONG LOOPING HODOGRAPH IN THE LOW LEVELS ASSOCIATED
   WITH AROUND 50 KT OF 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR...TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...ADDITIONAL SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AS
   STRONGER MID-LEVEL ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT N
   OF A NEWD-RETREATING BOUNDARY DRAPED NW/SE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL AR WILL
   ALSO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE SVR THREAT INTO N-CNTRL AR WITH
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN BACKED SFC FLOW N OF THE RETREATING
   FRONT ENHANCING LOW-LEVEL SRH.

   ..COHEN.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   34709411 36909423 38349285 37899155 35739119 33759130
               33399218 33959354 34709411 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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