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Mesoscale Discussion 443
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0443
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AR...WRN TN...WRN KY...SRN
   IL...SERN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 103...

   VALID 280441Z - 280615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 103 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 103.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION FROM NERN AR INTO WRN KY IS EVOLVING INTO AN
   MCS...WITH A FORWARD-PROPAGATING/BOWING SEGMENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE
   ADVANCING EWD ACROSS WRN KY. ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A 60-KT LLJ SAMPLED
   BY THE NQA VWP IS SUPPORTING BACKBUILDING CONVECTION INTO NERN AR.
   WITH THIS LLJ YIELDING 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50 KT...SOME RISK
   FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST...WHILE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
   SUPPORTS A DMGG WIND RISK. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THESE RISKS
   WILL BE MAXIMIZED IN NERN AR...WHERE COMPARATIVELY MOISTER
   CONDITIONS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
   60S -- IS SUPPORTING GREATER BUOYANCY.

   ..COHEN.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   36819088 37728936 37678823 36778782 36568886 35938921
               35128932 34959003 35019076 35589118 36819088 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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