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| Mesoscale Discussion 444 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AL...FAR NW FL PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 111759Z - 111930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING LINE OF STORMS
ENTERING FAR SRN MS. WATCH ISSUANCE EXPECTED BY 19Z.
DISCUSSION...LINE OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN LA AND FAR SRN MS HAS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A WARM...TROPICAL
AIRMASS...CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S...CONTINUES TO
ADVECT NWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. 16Z LIX SOUNDING REVEALS THE
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT ON THE 12Z SOUNDING HAS ERODED WITH
ABUNDANT DEEP MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FAVORING
STRONG INSTABILITY. VAD PROFILES AT LIX AND MOB SHOW STRONG
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 250 M2/S2.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS EFFECTIVE SRH IN EXCESS OF 200 M2/S2 ACROSS
COASTAL MS AND AL. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL PROFILES...AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A FEW TORNADOES
APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN THE LINE AND ANY DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD
OF IT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS CONFIRM A TORNADO WATCH IS NEEDED AND
ONE WILL BE ISSUED BY 19Z.
..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/11/2013
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30528651 30418672 30308728 30218793 30728839 32098839
32098750 32108690 31848638 31288627 30528651
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