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Mesoscale Discussion 444
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0444
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL AND SE MISSOURI INTO SRN ILLINOIS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280643Z - 280815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS APPROACHING SEVERE
   LIMITS...WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
   SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE APEX OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT...EXHIBITING A
   BOW ECHO STRUCTURE IN RADAR REFLECTIVITIES...IS PROPAGATING
   NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 50 KT.  AT THIS RATE...IT WOULD PROGRESS
   THROUGH THE FARMINGTON MO TO MOUNT VERNON IL AREA DURING THE 07-09Z
   TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...WITH THE COLD POOL SURGING INTO A RAIN-COOLED
   AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER IMPACTED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   ...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL PERSIST ON ITS LEADING EDGE.  LATEST TRENDS IN WDSS-II CAPPI
   AND LIGHTNING DATA SUGGEST CONVECTION MAY ALREADY BE IN THE PROCESS
   OF WEAKENING.  BUT...GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY
   REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS WITH REMNANT
   CONVECTION.  THIS COULD IMPACT AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS THE ST. LOUIS
   METRO BY AROUND 08Z.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38469179 38919078 39118999 39028907 38558854 37868861
               37398935 37269076 37679107 37949127 38469179 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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