MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN TX / SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 111938Z - 112045Z
   
   SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF
   SERN NM AND SWRN TX.  A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CU
   FIELD/DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND PARTS OF THE RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH BELT OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   PIVOTING EWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  19Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
   MOISTURE HAS RISEN INTO THE MID 40S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   NEARING 1 INCH AT THE PECOS/RIO GRANDE CONFLUENCE PER RECENT GPS H20
   DATA.  
   
   MAF VWP DATA INDICATE STRONG/VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS BENEATH
   APPROACHING 115 KT UPPER SPEED MAX.  AS SUCH...WIND PROFILES WILL
   FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION--INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.  STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SURFACE T/TD SPREADS FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG
   WINDS WITH STRONGER CORES.  AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO MORE MOIST/RICH
   AIRMASS...A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY EXIST FOR AN ISOLD
   TORNADO TOWARDS EVENING WHEN MORE FAVORABLE DIURNAL SPREADS AND
   LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT COEXIST AMIDST STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
   
   ..SMITH.. 04/11/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   30120272 30280329 31530368 33480354 33580322 33550271
               33400227 30580173 30220205 30120272