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Mesoscale Discussion 445
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN TX...THE NW HALF OF LA...SRN AND ERN
   AR...NWRN MS AND WRN TN

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...

   VALID 280750Z - 280945Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 104...105...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH
   ISSUANCE SOUTH AND EAST OF WW 105.

   DISCUSSION...AS A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE
   SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED
   LOW...ANOTHER SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOL SURGE
   APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING THE SURFACE DRYLINE.  MODELS SUGGEST THE
   LEADING EDGE OF THIS COOING WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD UPPER
   TEXAS COASTAL AREAS...AND TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION
   THROUGH 10-12Z.

   ASSOCIATED FORCING APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A
   SOLIDIFYING SQUALL LINE.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL
   CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST THE MORE DISCRETE STRONGER STORMS ANOTHER
   COUPLE HOURS...ALONG WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.  AS
   UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH CONTINUES...AND ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
   50-60+ KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS NOW EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
   INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30199714 31209565 32779385 34359301 35479181 35919009
               34169014 31159276 29329626 29589737 30199714 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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