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Mesoscale Discussion 445
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0445
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0502 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF LOWER MI AND FAR NRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252202Z - 252330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS SERN WI AND
   NRN IL IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DE-AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   UPPER MIDWEST. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN...
   THEY MAY DECREASE IN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY GIVEN COOL LAKE
   TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THEY MAY RE-INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE ONSHORE
   ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI AND FAR NRN IND OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
   ACROSS THIS REGION...THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SFC
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER TO MID 50S BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. THE NRN EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE RISK WILL
   LIKELY BE CONSTRAINED BY A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM ROUGHLY
   KMBL TO KRNP TO KARB ACROSS LOWER MI. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM
   INTENSITY CASTS SOME DOUBT ON THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH...ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

   ..GLEASON/DARROW.. 04/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   43098684 44048656 43788562 43488479 43008408 42108419
               41878487 41618595 41638682 41978702 43098684 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2016
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