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Mesoscale Discussion 446
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0604 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN WI...NRN IL...AND FAR NWRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103...

   VALID 252304Z - 260030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 103
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT SHOULD
   CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
   DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION ACROSS WW 103 HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO
   FAR ERN WI AND NERN IL THUS FAR ALONG A CONVERGENT LAKE BREEZE
   BOUNDARY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. MOST HAIL REPORTS OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE...PROBABLY DUE TO LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE RESULTING IN JUST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE.
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 40-50 KT ALONG WITH SOME VEERING OF SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW ANY STRONGER
   CORES ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
   STRONG/GUSTY WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL COOLING FURTHER REDUCES THE ALREADY
   LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EWD OVER LAKE
   MICHIGAN.

   ..GLEASON.. 04/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40988987 41348981 42238930 42848881 43648848 43858819
               43838717 41288699 40968834 40978942 40988987 

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