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Mesoscale Discussion 446
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0421 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AR...NRN/CNTRL LA...E TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 280921Z - 281015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SVR THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL ARE
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST DOWNSTREAM OF WW 105 AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
   COORDINATED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR AHEAD
   OF A STATIONARY DRYLINE. THIS TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
   AS THE DRYLINE MOVES LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME EWD
   PUSH IS EVENTUALLY ANTICIPATED AS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH N TX
   CONTINUES TO PUSH SEWD AND OVERTAKES THIS DRYLINE. 

   BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
   SUPERCELLS. ADDITIONALLY...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FAIRLY STRONG WITH 0-1
   KM SHEAR GENERALLY FROM 35 TO 40 KT. VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KPOE
   RECENTLY REPORTED 0-3 KM SRH OVER 400 M2/S2. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT TORNADO POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM OF WW 105 AND A TORNADO WATCH
   WILL BE COORDINATED SHORTLY.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32799383 33549298 33609161 33449129 32919120 31979174
               31059331 30359571 30509681 31229580 32089474 32799383 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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