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Mesoscale Discussion 446
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0446
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/CENTRAL MS TO WEST-CENTRAL AL

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 104...105...106...

   VALID 250707Z - 250830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   104...105...106...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/PARTS OF NORTHERN MS INTO WEST-CENTRAL AL
   OVERNIGHT. TORNADO WATCHES 105/106 CONTINUE UNTIL 09Z/13Z
   RESPECTIVELY.

   DISCUSSION...LEWP SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS
   EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MS...WITH THE STRONGEST EMBEDDED
   UPDRAFT AND BOW/EMBEDDED CIRCULATION NOW REACHING THE I-55 CORRIDOR
   JUST NORTH OF JACKSON AS OF 07Z/200AM CDT. THE WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM
   IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET AS OF 06Z. A
   WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND THE MOST INTENSE PART OF THE LINE
   SHOULD REMAIN SEMI-FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
   WEST-CENTRAL AL NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
   MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW IS MAXIMIZED. WITH AID OF A STRONG
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...A SPECIAL 06Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM
   JACKSON SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SINCE EARLIER
   THIS EVENING /00Z/ WITH 600+ J/KG MLCAPE AND AROUND 1.8 INCH
   PRECIPITABLE WATER. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 06Z JACKSON
   SOUNDING SHOW THAT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND
   SHEAR...INCLUDING 300+ M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAXIMIZED NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT...REMAINS VERY SUPPORT OF QUASI-LINEAR ORGANIZATION WITH
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WINDS/TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO
   WEST-CENTRAL AL.

   ..GUYER.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32349127 32649023 33268975 33948891 33588726 31918822
               31949050 32349127 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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