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Mesoscale Discussion 447
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CDT MON APR 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 252348Z - 260045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF S
   TX FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
   THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CLUSTER OF ISOLATED
   STORMS ONGOING OVER S TX.  THE STORMS HAVE INITIATED NEAR A N-S
   TROUGH/DRYLINE...SEPARATING AN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S DEWPOINT BOUNDARY
   LAYER NEAR AND E OF THE RIO GRANDE FROM MOIST/TROPICAL MID 70S
   DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN.  THE
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS /3000 TO 4000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE/ ALONG AND E OF
   THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH MODERATE FLOW ALOFT WHICH VEERS WITH HEIGHT
   YIELDING A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION.

   THE TWO STRONGEST STORMS ATTM -- ONE MOVING NWD ACROSS BEXAR COUNTY
   AND THE OTHER DRIFTING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MCMULLEN COUNTY -- MAY
   PRODUCE HAIL TO AROUND 2" IN DIAMETER...AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
   NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ONSET OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING A BIT LATER THIS EVENING WILL SUPPORT A
   GRADUAL DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK.

   FINALLY...A FEW ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTION HAVE BEEN EVIDENT OVER THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO W OF MFE /MCALLEN TX/...BUT SUSTAINED
   STORMS HAVE NOT DEVELOPED TO THIS POINT.  THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE HAS
   SUGGESTED POTENTIAL FOR A STORM OR TWO MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
   INTO DEEP S TX THIS EVENING...ATTM SUCH A SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY.

   ..GOSS/DARROW.. 04/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30329846 30329737 29259720 28249721 27609773 27529823
               28229868 29469885 30029874 30329846 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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