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Mesoscale Discussion 447
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0447
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN KY AND MIDDLE TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280930Z - 281100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST
   EITHER SIDE OF THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE/CENTRAL KENTUCKY BORDER AREA
   THROUGH 11-12Z.  HOWEVER...THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH EAST
   NORTHEAST OF WW 106 IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AS A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AND ASSOCIATED
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SPEED MAXIMUM MIGRATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...A TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS THE
   FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
   CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON IT.  THIS BOUNDARY IS ATTEMPTING TO ADVANCE
   EASTWARD INTO THE KENTUCKY BLUEGRASS...AND FARTHER EAST ALONG THE
   MIDDLE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY BORDER.  HOWEVER...A RESIDUAL POCKET OF
   RELATIVELY COOL AND DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO INHIBIT AT
   LEAST VIGOROUS SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AS A RESULT...STORM
   INTENSITY TRENDS AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL SEEM LIKELY TO
   DIMINISH WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 106.  BUT THE POTENTIALLY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE NORTH OF NASHVILLE TN...INTO THE
   HOPKINSVILLE AND BOWLING GREEN AREAS OF KENTUCKY BETWEEN NOW AND
   11-12Z.

   ..KERR/MEAD.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

   LAT...LON   36928799 37378732 37818666 38678590 38918506 38918442
               38068361 37048395 36508558 36418777 36928799 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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