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Mesoscale Discussion 448
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0412 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS AND SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL
   PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

   VALID 250912Z - 251015Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE
   MAINLY FROM FAR EAST-CENTRAL MS INTO PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL AL EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE STORMS COULD
   ALSO INCREASE/POSE A SEVERE RISK ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MS/FAR
   SOUTHERN AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES UNTIL
   13Z...AND DOWNSTREAM TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO STEADILY
   PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND FAR
   EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL MS AS OF 09Z/400AM CDT. THE INTEGRITY OF
   THE CONVECTIVE LINE/EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES APPEARS TO BE
   WEAKENING WHILE INFRARED SATELLITE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
   DISTINCT CLOUD-TOP WARMING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE THE
   SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY WELL PAST ITS PEAK IN TORNADO WATCH
   106...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO RISK WILL REMAIN A CONCERN
   WITH THE SQUALL LINE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
   GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN EARLY THIS
   MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN AL VIA THE WARM FRONT WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL
   VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY STRONG. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
   ADDITIONAL/MORE RECENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
   MS COULD INTENSIFY AND POTENTIALLY POSE A SEVERE/POSSIBLE TORNADO
   RISK INTO SOUTHWEST AL/WESTERN FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS MORNING.

   ..GUYER.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31918923 32678818 32928710 31588638 30408709 30518903
               31538882 31918923 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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