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Mesoscale Discussion 448
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0218 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 260718Z - 260915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   AND INTENSITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE THE PREDOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE
   CLUSTER...A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY FORM WITH A
   PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL.

   DISCUSSION...ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN
   INFRARED IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO
   AREA. TIME-SERIES OF TOPEKA VWP DATA INDICATES INCREASINGLY VEERED
   FLOW WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL LAYER. THIS IS LIKELY SUPPORTING
   ADVECTION OF THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL
   KS. WITH PERSISTENT WAA...CONVECTION SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STOUT EML. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
   MODEST...SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH ALONG
   THE GRADIENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE. AS THIS
   GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38949880 39609876 40089834 40359734 40339574 40209455
               40069373 39709334 39389317 38949310 38379345 38439405
               38719550 38789807 38949880 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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