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Mesoscale Discussion 448
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0657 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...

   VALID 281157Z - 281400Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT BEYOND WW 106...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
   INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF WFO MEG CWA...IS UNCLEAR.  AT THE PRESENT
   TIME... THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A NEW WW PROBABLY WILL NOT BE
   NEEDED TO THE NORTHEAST...AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...NARROW INTENSE LINE SEGMENT INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY AS
   IT APPROACHED AND CROSSED THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN
   TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  INSTABILITY WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AXIS...ALONG THE 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS NEAR
   THE RIVER...APPEARS TO HAVE PROVIDE SUPPORTED FOR THIS...AIDED BY
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG CYCLONIC
   MID/UPPER JET.  THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
   TOWARD CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH MIDDAY...INTO
   AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IMPACTED CONSIDERABLY BY ONGOING AND PRIOR
   CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH SOME FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION IS
   POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-13Z...ALONG AN INTERSECTION WITH A STALLING
   DOWNSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS CONVECTION
   TENDS TO DEVELOP INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.

   ..KERR.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36348904 37018806 37138656 36598610 35118720 34288855
               34168910 34298994 36348904 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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