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Mesoscale Discussion 449
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 260735Z - 260930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER FAR NORTHEAST CO MAY
   POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AS THEY SHIFT INTO SOUTHWEST
   NEB. CONFINED SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT/MARGINAL NATURE OF THE RISK
   SHOULD PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FROM SEDGWICK TO
   YUMA COUNTY CO HAVE INTENSIFIED SINCE 0700Z. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
   TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOBE OF FORCED ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A
   LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHIFTING NORTH OVER THE LEE OF THE CO
   ROCKIES. WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
   KS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY ELEVATED AMID UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
   SURFACE DEW POINTS...WHICH IS WELL SUPPORTED BY RAP SOUNDINGS.
   HOWEVER...MOISTURE ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE IS CONTRIBUTING TO A
   CONFINED PLUME OF WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY AMID STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES. WHILE PREDOMINANT MERIDIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
   CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL FOSTER A CONTINUED CLUSTER MODE...ISOLATED
   SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY SPREADS
   NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEB.

   ..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   40950268 41180264 41520237 41560197 41280152 40790139
               40350141 40030182 39890229 40070257 40950268 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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