MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0713 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AR INTO FAR WESTERN MS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121213Z - 121345Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
   REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN
   MS...THROUGH MID MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST BAND OF ELEVATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS HAS
   INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL AR EARLY THIS
   MORNING...LIKELY TIED TO A MOISTURE SURGE AROUND 850 MB COINCIDENT
   WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT OF AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BASED AROUND/ABOVE 850 MB PER THE 12Z
   SHREVEPORT OBSERVED RAOB...AMPLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY /2000+ J PER KG
   MUCAPE PER 12Z SHV/ AND FAVORABLE SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
   LAYER WILL SUPPORT ROTATING ELEVATED TSTMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. A
   WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
   CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/12/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
   
   LAT...LON   34519452 35189306 35129160 34019016 32389118 33059321
               33909453 34519452