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Mesoscale Discussion 451
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0718 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL MO...NORTHEAST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...105...

   VALID 261218Z - 261345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   104...105...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...MCS OVER NORTHEAST KS SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. A SWATH OF SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL APPEARS LIKELY...INCLUDING NORTHERN PARTS OF THE KANSAS
   CITY METRO AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN MCS RECENTLY
   EVOLVED INTO AN ACCELERATING SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER
   NEMAHA/JACKSON/BROWN COUNTY KS...WITH SEVERAL DOWNSTREAM UPDRAFTS
   ALONG THE NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BORDER AREA. THESE CELLS SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO AMALGAMATE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
   ACROSS NORTHERN MO. FLANKING DEVELOPMENT FORCED BY THE REMNANT
   EASTERN BRANCH OF THE LLJ AND FORWARD PROPAGATION SHOULD RESULT IN
   LARGE-SCALE MOTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL MO ALONG
   THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OF
   SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WITHIN A SWATH THAT SHOULD INCLUDE AT LEAST
   NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.

   ..GRAMS.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39819561 40029516 40119464 39929337 39679235 39409201
               39079202 38779212 38599229 38529282 38659351 38789430
               39029501 39249553 39509570 39819561 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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