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Mesoscale Discussion 452
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KY...MIDDLE TO ERN TN...FAR NRN AL...FAR NRN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281750Z - 281845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ONGOING IN MIDDLE AND ERN TN SHOULD
   CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ALONG AND A
   TORNADO THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WATCH MAY
   BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN MIDDLE TO ERN
   TN FROM EAST OF NASHVILLE TN NEWD TO THE KY STATE-LINE. THIS
   ACTIVITY IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 60S F.
   RESULTANT INSTABILITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS
   MIDDLE TO ERN TN. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A 60
   TO 70 KT JET MAX NEAR 700 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO CREATE STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST WSR-88D VWP AT NASHVILLE
   TN SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65 TO 70 KT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE
   1 KM. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
   STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS STORM COVERAGE
   GRADUALLY INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND WIND
   DAMAGE...THE TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY AS SFC-BASED
   CELLS CURRENTLY OVER NCNTRL MS MOVE INTO MIDDLE AND ERN TN LATER
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   36268356 35118481 34888678 35158760 36638560 36938458
               36268356 

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Page last modified: April 28, 2014
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