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Mesoscale Discussion 452
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0935 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO LA AND SRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109...

   VALID 251435Z - 251630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 109
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT IS MOVING MOSTLY OFFSHORE THE UPPER TX
   COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A DEVELOPING THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN LA
   INTO SRN MS LATER TODAY. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS ARE DAMAGING
   WIND AND LARGE HAIL...AND ANOTHER WATCH IS LIKELY DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
   LA AND MS.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
   RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA WITH LEADING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. WHILE SOME CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL OVER SERN TX
   BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT IS DECREASING.

   THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY FROM SRN LA INTO SRN MS/AL WHERE HEATING WILL LEAD TO
   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR/FLOW IN PLACE. THE STRONG MEAN-LAYER FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT GIVEN THE MOIST AIR MASS WILL FAVOR BOTH DAMAGING
   WINDS AND LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OUT
   OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SWRN LA AND JUST OFFSHORE.

   ..JEWELL.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29679360 31069231 31679046 31848845 31458780 30958764
               30488751 30208761 29718767 29118797 28888915 28989085
               29449246 29419339 29679360 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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