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Mesoscale Discussion 454
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0952 PM CDT THU APR 11 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR EASTERN AL INTO
   WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN GA AND WESTERN CAROLINAS
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 101...99...
   
   VALID 120252Z - 120415Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 101...99...CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADO POTENTIAL REMAINS A CONCERN FROM
   THE FL PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST AL INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL/NORTHERN PORTIONS
   OF GA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. TORNADO WATCH 101 CONTINUES UNTIL
   08Z...BUT TORNADO WATCH 99 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z.
   
   DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
   CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL
   PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST AL INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL GA AS OF
   0230Z...WITH MORE DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS CONTINUING ACROSS
   NORTHEAST GA AHEAD OF A MORE DIFFUSE PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE.
   THESE SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE SOME/PERIODIC
   TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST GA INTO WESTERN SC. WHILE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COOLED A FEW DEGREES F SINCE SUNSET WITHIN THIS
   CORRIDOR...CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
   FROM PEACHTREE CITY/ATLANTA GA SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY LAYER CINH IS
   NOT NECESSARILY PROHIBITIVE OF LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES/POSSIBLE
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE 0-1 KM SRH OF 300+
   M2/S2 PER LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KFFC.
   
   ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH 101...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT
   SOME ORGANIZATIONAL/LINE INTENSIFICATION MAY CONTINUE OCCUR WITH THE
   ALREADY WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...INCLUDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
   LINE-ECHO EVOLUTIONS/POSSIBLE MESOVORTICES. THIS WOULD BE AT LEAST
   PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO MASS RESPONSE TO AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   SURGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY PER
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF THE
   COLD FRONT/CONVECTIVE LINE LIKELY THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
   INTO/ACROSS GA. IN ALL...DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
   REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES/SMALL SCALE
   BOWS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL GA AND
   EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST GA THROUGH EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT.
   
   ..GUYER.. 04/12/2013
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...TAE...BMX...
   
   LAT...LON   33608463 34448391 35338294 35678164 34768086 32248323
               29828448 30128584 32118502 33608463 
   
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Page last modified: April 12, 2013
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