Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 454
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 454 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0115 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CAROLINAS AWAY FROM MTNS.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281815Z - 282015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
   DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH LATE AFTN...PERHAPS INCLUDING A FEW
   TRANSIENT SUPERCELL AND/OR BOW STRUCTURES...OFFERING DAMAGING GUSTS
   AND SPORADIC HAIL.  TORNADO POTENTIAL EXISTS BUT IS VERY
   LOW/CONDITIONAL ON STORM-SCALE PROCESSES.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING
   NWD-RETURNING WARM SECTOR AND EROSION OF OLD DAMMING REGIME --
   ACROSS SRN NC BETWEEN HKY-CLT THEN EWD TOWARD SRN OUTER BANKS AREA. 
   THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN NC THROUGH
   REMAINDER AFTN.  MEANWHILE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...WITHIN ABOUT 20 NM OF
   COAST IN MOST AREAS -- WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND.  THESE BOUNDARIES
   WILL BE FOCI FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND INTERACTION WITH RELATIVELY
   MAXIMIZED BOUNDARY-LAYER VORTICITY.  WARM-SECTOR INITIATION ALSO HAS
   BEGUN OVER PORTIONS ERN SC AND SRN NC...ALONG A FEW OUT OF MANY
   SSW-NNE-ORIENTED HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY.
    ADDITIONAL HCR-RELATED TSTM GENESIS ALSO IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
   ESSENTIALLY ZERO MLCINH NOW EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST
   SOUNDINGS...ALONG WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG. 
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN MODEST...WITH
   25-35 KT VALUES SUGGESTING DOMINANT MULTICELLULAR STORM
   MODE...ALTHOUGH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
   INVOF WARM FRONT.

   ..EDWARDS/THOMPSON.. 04/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...

   LAT...LON   34717675 34627726 34407769 34217783 34027795 33907844
               33787882 33477916 33237922 33077941 32837978 32757996
               32758019 32848048 33148060 33368049 34128025 34508045
               34858086 35028157 35208178 35498168 35778125 36038029
               35887913 35867819 35657767 35377713 35157674 34917660
               34717675 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 28, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities