Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 454
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 454 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...NJ...NRN MD...NE WV...NRN DE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 261719Z - 261845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PA...NJ AND NRN MD. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
   ACROSS THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW OVER SE PA WITH
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AND WRN PA. TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC TEMPS ARE APPROACHING 80 F AND THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
   ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE. AS SFC HEATING
   CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   ACROSS SCNTRL PA WITH CONVECTION GRADUALLY EXPANDING WWD ACROSS SW
   PA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SCNTRL PA AND NJ FOR 21Z SHOW 0-6 KM
   SHEAR OF 50 KT WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO SHIFT SEWD INTO NRN MD AND DELAWARE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40647966 40827809 40837662 40947544 40917443 40777401
               40227391 39567461 39277634 39287924 39908014 40647966 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 26, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities