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Mesoscale Discussion 454
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0454
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO...SRN IL...SRN INDIANA...WRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 251722Z - 251945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
   SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
   POSSIBLE. TWO WATCHES ARE LIKELY...FIRST ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA...THEN DOWNSTREAM INTO CENTRAL KY LATER TODAY WHERE
   A WIND THREAT MAY ALSO MATERIALIZE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
   AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
   SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR FROM NEAR ST.
   LOUIS SEWD ACROSS IL AND INTO WRN KY.

   STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX. VISIBLE
   SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL MO WHERE
   THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL BREAKUP OF
   CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS WILL
   CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

   SHALLOW SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS SHOULD ONLY
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
   SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD WITH A COUPLE
   TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

   ..JEWELL/MEAD.. 04/25/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   37659094 38629099 38989039 38678844 37968562 37498526
               36958543 36748588 36528690 36618825 37659094 

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Page last modified: April 25, 2015
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