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Mesoscale Discussion 455
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0455
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1258 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SCNTRL IND...SRN OH...NW WV...NRN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261758Z - 262030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SCNTRL IND EWD
   ACROSS SRN OH INTO NW WV. THE THREAT MAY DEVELOP SWD INTO NRN KY. WW
   ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
   EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
   HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL AND SW OH THIS
   AFTERNOON. SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS INCLUDING THE HRRR GRADUALLY
   INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. ALTHOUGH MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
   MCD AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BELOW
   25 KT ACROSS MUCH OF SCNTRL IND AND SW OH. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
   FACTOR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. IN SPITE OF THIS...A PLUME OF STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS ANALYZED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS FROM THE MID
   MS VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF THE
   STORMS CAN LINE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE SWD INTO NRN KY LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...

   LAT...LON   38068569 38238751 38818786 39518763 39848718 40118522
               40138339 40138198 40148135 39948069 39548048 38878046
               38368071 38128196 38078464 38068569 

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Page last modified: April 26, 2016
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